{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d86d51f1-d387-408d-aef7-fcc05022e223", "symbol": "000558", "name": "Chengdu New Tianfu Culture Tourism Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.209, "architecture_energy": 53.865, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.814, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 28.62, "upward_expansion": 9.45, "deceleration": 60.73, "rotation_down": 50.06, "downward_expansion": 82.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.324, 3.335091, 3.555381, 3.824839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.43, "trend_reference": 4.222333, "distance_from_trend": -0.187653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.694038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.449251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.356473, "excess_performance": -0.363873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.378799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109025625, "relative_activity": 0.876066, "balance": 0.378799, "dry_up": 1.105136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084324, "annualized_volatility": 0.387084, "from_high_reference": -0.566372, "from_low_reference": 0.113636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.222333, "fair_value_reference": 3.694038, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001689, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003345, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.253333, "worst_return": -0.149254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.038046, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029376, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322727, "worst_return": -0.286353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.082566, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178571, "worst_return": -0.392381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"typical_volume": 124232932.15, "trend": 4.279667, "fair_value": 3.692628, "relative_strength": -30.83762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.668779, "energy": 61.655682, "activity_lines": [ 3.272, 3.336, 3.595667, 3.879656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.43, "volume": 109025625, "typical_volume": 124449119.1, "trend": 4.222333, "fair_value": 3.694038, "relative_strength": -32.449251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.208588, "energy": 53.865283, "activity_lines": [ 3.324, 3.335091, 3.555381, 3.824839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }