{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8733c42-0691-4391-865c-dc0e25c5caff", "symbol": "002406", "name": "Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.984, "architecture_energy": 42.937, "architecture_maturity": 35.132, "architecture_confidence": 87.546, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.99, "rotation_up": 21.2, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 53.75, "downward_expansion": 79.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.531333, 6.552988, 7.044936, 7.268578 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.76, "trend_reference": 7.567441, "distance_from_trend": -0.106699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.676571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.263667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166461, "excess_performance": -0.173861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.514187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59627379, "relative_activity": 0.48976, "balance": 1.514187, "dry_up": 0.561372, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102975, "annualized_volatility": 0.422463, "from_high_reference": -0.264418, "from_low_reference": 0.111842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.567441, "fair_value_reference": 6.676571, "structural_low": 6.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016736, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.02767, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.17551, "worst_return": -0.162063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051471, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.019418, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.290514, "worst_return": -0.187394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056208, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.104246, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.494071, "worst_return": -0.187394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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122648618.15, "trend": 7.646107, "fair_value": 6.662927, "relative_strength": -21.822435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.534677, "energy": 72.4892, "activity_lines": [ 6.327128, 6.641105, 7.166442, 7.385538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.68, "volume": 65944540, "typical_volume": 121931922.15, "trend": 7.606774, "fair_value": 6.668785, "relative_strength": -12.52857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.612434, "energy": 49.579322, "activity_lines": [ 6.428256, 6.576501, 7.099237, 7.323208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.76, "volume": 59627379, "typical_volume": 121748103.9, "trend": 7.567441, "fair_value": 6.676571, "relative_strength": -15.263667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.984377, "energy": 42.937441, "activity_lines": [ 6.531333, 6.552988, 7.044936, 7.268578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }