{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8743055-c17a-4fa7-abe0-dfae18e56d5d", "symbol": "PPL", "name": "PPL Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.39, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.228, "architecture_energy": 35.546, "architecture_maturity": 14.481, "architecture_confidence": 90.502, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.02, "rotation_up": 20.28, "upward_expansion": 8.15, "deceleration": 41.42, "rotation_down": 50.86, "downward_expansion": 79.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.618667, 35.867382, 36.039572, 36.365881 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.46, "trend_reference": 36.594702, "distance_from_trend": -0.031007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.029745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.38258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002596, "excess_performance": -0.123029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015875, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38001693, "relative_activity": 0.93154, "balance": 1.316428, "dry_up": 0.91874, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043077, "annualized_volatility": 0.201645, "from_high_reference": -0.108739, "from_low_reference": 0.085881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.594702, "fair_value_reference": 31.029745, "structural_low": 34.215926, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024415, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.011774, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.064068, "worst_return": -0.123801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078206, "worst_return": -0.063719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010385, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.061938, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.094114, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 36.22, "volume": 36547644, "typical_volume": 40474462.95, "trend": 36.526676, "fair_value": 30.879703, "relative_strength": -7.000277, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.218746, "energy": 13.610469, "activity_lines": [ 36.176, 36.079217, 36.282925, 36.521021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.21, "volume": 44569427, "typical_volume": 40817629.85, "trend": 36.547989, "fair_value": 30.954213, "relative_strength": -10.276777, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.521177, "energy": 30.13579, "activity_lines": [ 35.795333, 35.943105, 36.142215, 36.436074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.46, "volume": 38001693, "typical_volume": 40794464.7, "trend": 36.594702, "fair_value": 31.029745, "relative_strength": -12.38258, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.22753, "energy": 35.546076, "activity_lines": [ 35.618667, 35.867382, 36.039572, 36.365881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }