{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8743061-a06c-422b-a5cd-83caf5e17fed", "symbol": "603903", "name": "CSD Water Service Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.42, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.429, "architecture_energy": 16.433, "architecture_maturity": 26.05, "architecture_confidence": 80.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.27, "rotation_up": 25.98, "upward_expansion": 50.19, "deceleration": 87.85, "rotation_down": 35.53, "downward_expansion": 25.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.908545, 12.711762, 12.560065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.43, "trend_reference": 12.476333, "distance_from_trend": -0.003714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.390257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.919061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00811, "excess_performance": 0.051314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.930371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53353913, "relative_activity": 1.062732, "balance": 0.930371, "dry_up": 1.488556, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163748, "annualized_volatility": 0.596254, "from_high_reference": -0.299324, "from_low_reference": 0.59359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.476333, "fair_value_reference": 9.390257, "structural_low": 10.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006698, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00057, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179399, "worst_return": -0.16422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014635, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00116, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.222883, "worst_return": -0.10846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053929, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.051785, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.190058, "worst_return": -0.340047, 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"direction": 23.411475, "energy": 19.773182, "activity_lines": [ 12.841333, 12.547636, 12.340429, 12.408108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.92, "volume": 140588441, "typical_volume": 39399955.7, "trend": 12.790667, "fair_value": 9.294047, "relative_strength": 26.85236, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.201121, "energy": 57.82303, "activity_lines": [ 13.974667, 13.172182, 12.690381, 12.610624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.74, "volume": 79591014, "typical_volume": 42303623.2, "trend": 12.755333, "fair_value": 9.327348, "relative_strength": 15.24021, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.685549, "energy": 49.990138, "activity_lines": [ 14.144, 13.333455, 12.816333, 12.671871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.85, "volume": 80764080, "typical_volume": 44928205.7, "trend": 12.660667, "fair_value": 9.353963, "relative_strength": 5.639775, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.526374, "energy": 55.908591, "activity_lines": [ 13.874, 13.309818, 12.854714, 12.677978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 85219956, "typical_volume": 48306347.45, "trend": 12.547, "fair_value": 9.367523, "relative_strength": -10.709819, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.234907, "energy": 11.46789, "activity_lines": [ 12.890667, 12.958182, 12.710429, 12.567613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.43, "volume": 53353913, "typical_volume": 50204505.65, "trend": 12.476333, "fair_value": 9.390257, "relative_strength": -1.919061, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.428757, "energy": 16.432853, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.908545, 12.711762, 12.560065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }