{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8755b2a-cb80-45c0-a9d6-45fbcc3ec733", "symbol": "300876", "name": "Guangdong Modern High-tech Fiber Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.546, "architecture_energy": 59.586, "architecture_maturity": 63.215, "architecture_confidence": 86.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 9.83, "deceleration": 56.74, "rotation_down": 66.43, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.048, 14.593273, 16.419598, 17.442092 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.17, "trend_reference": 18.912, "distance_from_trend": -0.197864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.439376, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.859561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288747, "excess_performance": -0.296147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14286264, "relative_activity": 1.114273, "balance": 0.284987, "dry_up": 1.128391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124088, "annualized_volatility": 0.457053, "from_high_reference": -0.473002, "from_low_reference": 0.317984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.912, "fair_value_reference": 17.439376, "structural_low": 11.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.037581, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.019797, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.275966, "worst_return": -0.229345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.066615, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.002061, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.64314, "worst_return": -0.184199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.179112, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.060411, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.450113, "worst_return": -0.274589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.828666, 15.988493, 17.641476, 18.580651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.65, "volume": 14323655, "typical_volume": 13546349.4, "trend": 19.725666, "fair_value": 17.487984, "relative_strength": -39.616057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.484833, "energy": 80.33976, "activity_lines": [ 13.982667, 15.150078, 17.084476, 18.095754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.67, "volume": 16127950, "typical_volume": 13031436.45, "trend": 19.246095, "fair_value": 17.459416, "relative_strength": -33.143624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.003223, "energy": 71.322526, "activity_lines": [ 13.726667, 14.667117, 16.664007, 17.705066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.17, "volume": 14286264, "typical_volume": 12821149.35, "trend": 18.912, "fair_value": 17.439376, "relative_strength": -28.859561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.545835, "energy": 59.585728, "activity_lines": [ 14.048, 14.593273, 16.419598, 17.442092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }