{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d876e1fb-0183-4c49-9ebd-c6690dba0aa0", "symbol": "300493", "name": "Shanghai Fortune Techgroup Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.685, "architecture_energy": 54.261, "architecture_maturity": 63.526, "architecture_confidence": 83.942, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 15.7, "upward_expansion": 8.07, "deceleration": 54.32, "rotation_down": 62.48, "downward_expansion": 79.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.748667, 13.139958, 14.098996, 14.92122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.14, "trend_reference": 16.346226, "distance_from_trend": -0.196145, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.193249, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.901483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.326499, "excess_performance": -0.333899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66902448, "relative_activity": 1.033272, "balance": 0.740924, "dry_up": 1.283291, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111737, "annualized_volatility": 0.452095, "from_high_reference": -0.503811, "from_low_reference": 0.147598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.346226, "fair_value_reference": 15.193249, "structural_low": 11.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.040619, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.000962, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.240945, "worst_return": -0.194162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016909, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.255008, "worst_return": -0.189047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013661, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.098504, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.327263, "worst_return": -0.268562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.078335, "energy": 66.142931, "activity_lines": [ 12.826667, 13.493672, 14.482442, 15.398303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.82, "volume": 77102355, "typical_volume": 64258878.95, "trend": 16.577893, "fair_value": 15.163626, "relative_strength": -29.85885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.863909, "energy": 57.735904, "activity_lines": [ 12.698667, 13.250043, 14.264552, 15.143019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.14, "volume": 66902448, "typical_volume": 64748140.3, "trend": 16.346226, "fair_value": 15.193249, "relative_strength": -30.901483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.68535, "energy": 54.261203, "activity_lines": [ 12.748667, 13.139958, 14.098996, 14.92122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }