{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d87ca837-f9e3-4691-bbac-b026657ace98",
    "symbol": "NL",
    "name": "NL Industries Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 35.459,
    "architecture_energy": 14.415,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.276,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.102,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.46,
        "rotation_up": 34.98,
        "upward_expansion": 49.57,
        "deceleration": 78.05,
        "rotation_down": 27.93,
        "downward_expansion": 26.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.046667,
        6.030182,
        6.092879,
        6.049592
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.49,
    "trend_reference": 6.001334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.081426,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.702667,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138064,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.300993,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.083892,
    "excess_performance": -0.041733,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081426,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03157,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.138064,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079836,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01301,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095157,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083892,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.779028,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 215604,
      "relative_activity": 0.860887,
      "balance": 0.779028,
      "dry_up": 0.672997,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.130577,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.4898,
      "from_high_reference": -0.232896,
      "from_low_reference": 0.331182
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.001334,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.702667,
      "structural_low": 5.272987,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.016373,
        "positive_rate": 0.551724,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.551724,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003687,
        "regime_survival": 0.586207,
        "best_return": 0.440141,
        "worst_return": -0.152348,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.015936,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02352,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.447285,
        "worst_return": -0.211673,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.078788,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004689,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.486332,
        "worst_return": -0.213402,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.147725,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.044778,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.716097,
        "worst_return": -0.349217,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.158132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.197593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006309,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.202055,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038801,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.157368,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.028986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.088572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.091888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028765,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.021002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.003361,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.198553,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.107509,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 102617.4,
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.81,
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        "typical_volume": 266605.4,
        "trend": 5.981239,
        "fair_value": 5.678851,
        "relative_strength": -7.757659,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.881723,
        "energy": 6.754871,
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          5.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.74,
        "volume": 122259,
        "typical_volume": 251929.3,
        "trend": 5.996521,
        "fair_value": 5.688503,
        "relative_strength": -9.719785,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.221093,
        "energy": 13.14545,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.869333,
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          6.046757,
          6.017754
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.49,
        "volume": 215604,
        "typical_volume": 250444.1,
        "trend": 6.001334,
        "fair_value": 5.702667,
        "relative_strength": -1.300993,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.45932,
        "energy": 14.415062,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}