{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d87f2d6d-56bf-4639-907f-69751c299568", "symbol": "CMP", "name": "Compumedics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.449, "architecture_energy": 54.149, "architecture_maturity": 60.24, "architecture_confidence": 95.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 21.78, "upward_expansion": 8.37, "deceleration": 53.97, "rotation_down": 61.14, "downward_expansion": 84.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.225667, 0.230682, 0.246131, 0.261081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.225, "trend_reference": 0.287333, "distance_from_trend": -0.216937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.286186, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.996503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347826, "excess_performance": -0.411532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91727, "relative_activity": 0.669703, "balance": 0.118493, "dry_up": 0.637613, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102564, "annualized_volatility": 0.267777, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.046512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.287333, "fair_value_reference": 0.286186, "structural_low": 0.215, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.003077, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.045503, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026058, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178571, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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60.233999, "activity_lines": [ 0.238333, 0.247773, 0.262417, 0.279909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.22, "volume": 166242, "typical_volume": 185229.95, "trend": 0.300167, "fair_value": 0.285032, "relative_strength": -29.32095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.890041, "energy": 63.435647, "activity_lines": [ 0.2315, 0.240818, 0.257202, 0.274382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23, "volume": 50820, "typical_volume": 169398.7, "trend": 0.295, "fair_value": 0.285417, "relative_strength": -25.58653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.663617, "energy": 56.943004, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.237136, 0.253464, 0.269855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 40538, "typical_volume": 148496.6, "trend": 0.291, "fair_value": 0.285801, "relative_strength": -28.23907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.666715, "energy": 57.112247, "activity_lines": [ 0.227, 0.233455, 0.249607, 0.265339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.225, "volume": 91727, "typical_volume": 136966.7, "trend": 0.287333, "fair_value": 0.286186, "relative_strength": -29.996503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.448967, "energy": 54.149334, "activity_lines": [ 0.225667, 0.230682, 0.246131, 0.261081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }