{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d87f52d1-34da-4516-89b1-bc01d6c8807f", "symbol": "GRNT", "name": "Granite Ridge Resources Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.086, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.006, "architecture_energy": 18.708, "architecture_maturity": 36.579, "architecture_confidence": 70.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 13.64, "deceleration": 41.4, "rotation_down": 25.33, "downward_expansion": 58.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.790667, 4.717091, 4.858848, 4.948061 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.88, "trend_reference": 4.968872, "distance_from_trend": -0.017886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.15868, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.088015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000208, "excess_performance": -0.125833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001068, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4097573, "relative_activity": 0.902477, "balance": 1.035572, "dry_up": 0.821333, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08232, "annualized_volatility": 0.466091, "from_high_reference": -0.187884, "from_low_reference": 0.219842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.968872, "fair_value_reference": 5.15868, "structural_low": 4.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025791, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.068282, "worst_return": -0.152513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004185, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05668, "worst_return": -0.137846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051187, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.128392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134708, "worst_return": -0.032335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084428, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095602, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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4.57, "volume": 4457225, "typical_volume": 4763258.3, "trend": 4.914346, "fair_value": 5.185198, "relative_strength": -16.824032, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.090784, "energy": 47.419712, "activity_lines": [ 4.563333, 4.718162, 4.967279, 4.984576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.67, "volume": 3680222, "typical_volume": 4794082.75, "trend": 4.921988, "fair_value": 5.179378, "relative_strength": -13.282009, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.276779, "energy": 41.882445, "activity_lines": [ 4.577333, 4.685704, 4.927472, 4.968811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 3943516, "typical_volume": 4772387.8, "trend": 4.93531, "fair_value": 5.173789, "relative_strength": -9.116589, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.689424, "energy": 23.074605, "activity_lines": [ 4.668, 4.68996, 4.906132, 4.964167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.75, "volume": 3195292, "typical_volume": 4661684.55, "trend": 4.944341, "fair_value": 5.168226, "relative_strength": -11.736179, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.786734, "energy": 12.448398, "activity_lines": [ 4.714667, 4.685818, 4.875549, 4.952212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.88, "volume": 4097573, "typical_volume": 4540361.25, "trend": 4.968872, "fair_value": 5.15868, "relative_strength": -12.088015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.005768, "energy": 18.708162, "activity_lines": [ 4.790667, 4.717091, 4.858848, 4.948061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }