{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8816271-9889-40ec-81ba-dbc6a97a57b8", "symbol": "CEMEXCPO", "name": "CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.042, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.757, "architecture_energy": 40.694, "architecture_maturity": 10.442, "architecture_confidence": 71.794, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.15, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 25.85, "deceleration": 47.35, "rotation_down": 60.28, "downward_expansion": 46.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.678667, 21.13729, 21.428826, 21.254283 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.48, "trend_reference": 21.185984, "distance_from_trend": -0.080524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.929259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.277456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073971, "excess_performance": -0.019304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.029676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120722757, "relative_activity": 1.054538, "balance": 1.029676, "dry_up": 0.917081, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057665, "annualized_volatility": 0.309214, "from_high_reference": -0.170131, "from_low_reference": 0.235416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.185984, "fair_value_reference": 14.929259, "structural_low": 17.809999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.057983, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.009744, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.191176, "worst_return": -0.161663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035846, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.109362, "worst_return": -0.184729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067937, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022146, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.191793, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": 12.688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.565871, "energy": 29.312495, "activity_lines": [ 21.972667, 21.924972, 21.660509, 21.427182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.18, "volume": 96173087, "typical_volume": 123926734.6, "trend": 21.283329, "fair_value": 14.839321, "relative_strength": 5.253439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.044469, "energy": 14.927193, "activity_lines": [ 21.767334, 21.791241, 21.666998, 21.420225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.51, "volume": 101425062, "typical_volume": 118165023.4, "trend": 21.278767, "fair_value": 14.888033, "relative_strength": 0.889902, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.002916, "energy": 3.644527, "activity_lines": [ 21.361334, 21.546378, 21.601245, 21.370332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.48, "volume": 120722757, "typical_volume": 114479339.65, "trend": 21.185984, "fair_value": 14.929259, "relative_strength": -4.277456, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.757204, "energy": 40.693539, "activity_lines": [ 20.678667, 21.13729, 21.428826, 21.254283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }