{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8922a34-f841-4502-a82c-804709ac061a", "symbol": "EUNJ", "name": "iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.939, "architecture_energy": 96.04, "architecture_maturity": 13.508, "architecture_confidence": 71.267, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.21, "rotation_up": 89.03, "upward_expansion": 99.99, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.14, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.55439, 48.75415, 48.158317, 47.791748 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 50.509998, "trend_reference": 47.25626, "distance_from_trend": 0.068853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.900385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.338343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100178, "excess_performance": 0.035538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.695647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3547, "relative_activity": 0.730106, "balance": 5.695647, "dry_up": 0.389496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015599, "annualized_volatility": 0.112238, "from_high_reference": -0.000198, "from_low_reference": 0.209947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.25626, "fair_value_reference": 40.900385, "structural_low": 44.704403, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.005569, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.000182, "regime_survival": 0.535714, "best_return": 0.082644, "worst_return": -0.056859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024306, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.012045, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.092476, "worst_return": -0.093341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041054, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.013371, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100178, "worst_return": -0.110671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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47.218876, 47.286439, 47.253306, 46.979617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.230858, "volume": 2384, "typical_volume": 5075.9, "trend": 46.4923, "fair_value": 40.544195, "relative_strength": 3.355328, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.135919, "energy": 37.295334, "activity_lines": [ 47.591881, 47.443246, 47.352499, 47.103412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.584999, "volume": 2484, "typical_volume": 5186.25, "trend": 46.674276, "fair_value": 40.627455, "relative_strength": 4.880266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.03619, "energy": 59.69032, "activity_lines": [ 47.970877, 47.651426, 47.483521, 47.238425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.235001, "volume": 735, "typical_volume": 4871.15, "trend": 46.859054, "fair_value": 40.709652, "relative_strength": 4.912428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.158033, "energy": 79.288435, "activity_lines": [ 48.475461, 47.962426, 47.674233, 47.403633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.415001, "volume": 803, "typical_volume": 4781.7, "trend": 47.050163, "fair_value": 40.799555, "relative_strength": 2.974071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.689869, "energy": 84.66799, "activity_lines": [ 48.909601, 48.275243, 47.871034, 47.568533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.509998, "volume": 3547, "typical_volume": 4858.2, "trend": 47.25626, "fair_value": 40.900385, "relative_strength": 2.338343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.938583, "energy": 96.039572, "activity_lines": [ 49.55439, 48.75415, 48.158317, 47.791748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }