{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d897efdb-ad2b-4e83-9334-8457449578c0", "symbol": "601388", "name": "Yechiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.671, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.735, "architecture_energy": 34.468, "architecture_maturity": 66.09, "architecture_confidence": 77.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.85, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 33.77, "downward_expansion": 65.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.044364, 3.247093, 3.406415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.27, "trend_reference": 3.562935, "distance_from_trend": -0.082217, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.769127, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.671841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285684, "excess_performance": -0.24248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004061, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193978315, "relative_activity": 0.723328, "balance": 0.664897, "dry_up": 0.818653, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079239, "annualized_volatility": 0.453625, "from_high_reference": -0.313959, "from_low_reference": 0.306744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.562935, "fair_value_reference": 2.769127, "structural_low": 2.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.009345, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.011347, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.281818, "worst_return": -0.162562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00276, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.275617, "worst_return": -0.182716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090278, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014874, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.051504, "worst_return": -0.148526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.150943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122378, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.430768, "energy": 90.18341, "activity_lines": [ 2.934, 3.119902, 3.417934, 3.52881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.94, "volume": 265384270, "typical_volume": 308630578.9, "trend": 3.547847, "fair_value": 2.764957, "relative_strength": -4.817363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.923695, "energy": 83.778452, "activity_lines": [ 2.913333, 3.053524, 3.353815, 3.489809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.99, "volume": 235781431, "typical_volume": 295309649.5, "trend": 3.551191, "fair_value": 2.765408, "relative_strength": -4.556775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.097663, "energy": 71.631048, "activity_lines": [ 2.93, 3.016085, 3.300743, 3.453819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1, "volume": 183023823, "typical_volume": 278801139.7, "trend": 3.553568, "fair_value": 2.766628, "relative_strength": -1.631208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.873919, "energy": 52.471579, "activity_lines": [ 2.992, 3.010182, 3.263628, 3.42471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.27, "volume": 193978315, "typical_volume": 268174757.0, "trend": 3.562935, "fair_value": 2.769127, "relative_strength": 0.671841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.734621, "energy": 34.468121, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.044364, 3.247093, 3.406415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }