{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d89cfb27-fad2-455e-9473-3ec2b52f6ceb", "symbol": "JSWSTEEL", "name": "JSW Steel Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.713, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.451, "architecture_energy": 29.335, "architecture_maturity": 16.252, "architecture_confidence": 74.461, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.69, "rotation_up": 47.72, "upward_expansion": 65.36, "deceleration": 55.8, "rotation_down": 20.75, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 1267.993351, 1258.086062, 1259.412834, 1247.747221 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1299.5, "trend_reference": 1233.911544, "distance_from_trend": 0.053155, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1000.747363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.824725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051205, "excess_performance": 0.094914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.098247, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071728, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.120671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9268037, "relative_activity": 1.309609, "balance": 3.120671, "dry_up": 1.257687, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036145, "annualized_volatility": 0.210149, "from_high_reference": -0.026592, "from_low_reference": 0.271153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1233.911544, "fair_value_reference": 1000.747363, "structural_low": 1102.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015918, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.021834, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.122999, "worst_return": -0.088414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066629, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023191, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.200312, "worst_return": -0.023036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098492, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.088202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125576, "worst_return": -0.012765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.524154, "energy": 12.9979, "activity_lines": [ 1237.314567, 1248.125919, 1250.404227, 1240.390216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1270.0, "volume": 6533675, "typical_volume": 7184831.1, "trend": 1229.221545, "fair_value": 997.622906, "relative_strength": 8.580899, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.781693, "energy": 11.490525, "activity_lines": [ 1249.271639, 1250.283263, 1253.862578, 1243.213127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1299.5, "volume": 9268037, "typical_volume": 7076947.4, "trend": 1233.911544, "fair_value": 1000.747363, "relative_strength": 9.824725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.450559, "energy": 29.334711, "activity_lines": [ 1267.993351, 1258.086062, 1259.412834, 1247.747221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }