{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d89dba62-8d0c-4ad4-9762-ae040d239651", "symbol": "ABDP", "name": "AB Dynamics plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.958, "architecture_energy": 86.21, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.163, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.64, "rotation_up": 8.38, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 77.31, "downward_expansion": 89.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 874.666667, 954.109091, 1005.040455, 1042.192974 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 770.0, "trend_reference": 1104.548141, "distance_from_trend": -0.302882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1604.125646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.519988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.462854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407674, "excess_performance": -0.458909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.302882, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.519988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099492, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407674, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.27684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 296160, "relative_activity": 0.962549, "balance": 1.27684, "dry_up": 1.211934, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131358, "annualized_volatility": 0.593978, "from_high_reference": -0.479689, "from_low_reference": 0.072423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1104.548141, "fair_value_reference": 1604.125646, "structural_low": 718.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.00526, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.011223, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.04731, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.201835, "worst_return": -0.278137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162469, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.185886, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.005995, "worst_return": -0.22484, 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1064.232298, 1096.631073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1060.0, "volume": 163376, "typical_volume": 279654.75, "trend": 1141.874593, "fair_value": 1617.551425, "relative_strength": -20.358626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.258379, "energy": 20.138458, "activity_lines": [ 1058.533333, 1062.690909, 1062.58123, 1090.897443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 740.0, "volume": 837797, "typical_volume": 306458.85, "trend": 1123.044674, "fair_value": 1610.566128, "relative_strength": -44.326186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.135455, "energy": 74.568263, "activity_lines": [ 950.266667, 1002.581818, 1031.429974, 1064.970049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 770.0, "volume": 296160, "typical_volume": 307683.05, "trend": 1104.548141, "fair_value": 1604.125646, "relative_strength": -41.462854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.957913, "energy": 86.210159, "activity_lines": [ 874.666667, 954.109091, 1005.040455, 1042.192974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }