{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8a518cd-faae-411d-9e51-ae691d378355", "symbol": "BIIB", "name": "Biogen Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.838, "architecture_energy": 30.468, "architecture_maturity": 46.028, "architecture_confidence": 54.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.49, "rotation_up": 36.6, "upward_expansion": 62.99, "deceleration": 67.98, "rotation_down": 24.97, "downward_expansion": 15.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 177.83333, 178.765817, 174.205523, 170.230881 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 177.179993, "trend_reference": 164.988666, "distance_from_trend": 0.073892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 168.995513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.460882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080695, "excess_performance": -0.093551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.219178, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72, "relative_activity": 1.342032, "balance": 7.219178, "dry_up": 1.877912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054477, "annualized_volatility": 0.2547, "from_high_reference": -0.072162, "from_low_reference": 0.61146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 164.988666, "fair_value_reference": 168.995513, "structural_low": 146.979996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.286393, "worst_return": -0.154608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074427, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011429, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295654, "worst_return": -0.175994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077599, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020217, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217802, "worst_return": -0.289833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 181.627999, 176.149817, 168.819809, 165.357225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 172.660004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 42.65, "trend": 161.391, "fair_value": 170.686667, "relative_strength": -3.553308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.873214, "energy": 69.251194, "activity_lines": [ 179.594668, 176.249454, 169.580666, 166.136537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 183.0, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 59.15, "trend": 162.547666, "fair_value": 170.264872, "relative_strength": 3.821924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.506752, "energy": 63.612482, "activity_lines": [ 181.024001, 178.055272, 171.276476, 167.530666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.860001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 52.7, "trend": 163.538, "fair_value": 169.862692, "relative_strength": -0.736054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.009483, "energy": 46.682189, "activity_lines": [ 180.166668, 178.586182, 172.383, 168.518559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 177.339996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52.3, "trend": 164.441, "fair_value": 169.444359, "relative_strength": -1.260855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.172079, "energy": 31.660747, "activity_lines": [ 178.684, 178.79709, 173.341142, 169.40901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.179993, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 53.65, "trend": 164.988666, "fair_value": 168.995513, "relative_strength": -4.460882, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.837984, "energy": 30.468408, "activity_lines": [ 177.83333, 178.765817, 174.205523, 170.230881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }