{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8a859a4-126b-44aa-95f5-47ee258387f1", "symbol": "FSJ", "name": "James Fisher and Sons plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.098, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.993, "architecture_energy": 11.858, "architecture_maturity": 17.49, "architecture_confidence": 51.565, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 19.15, "deceleration": 54.14, "rotation_down": 38.62, "downward_expansion": 35.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 464.933333, 466.472727, 473.557143, 476.529032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 481.0, "trend_reference": 472.366667, "distance_from_trend": 0.018277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 354.230769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.845912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073661, "excess_performance": 0.022425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038459, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.973281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226312, "relative_activity": 1.032403, "balance": 2.973281, "dry_up": 0.918861, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072284, "annualized_volatility": 0.38598, "from_high_reference": -0.131769, "from_low_reference": 0.503125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 472.366667, "fair_value_reference": 354.230769, "structural_low": 429.290985, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.027589, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023945, "regime_survival": 0.214286, "best_return": 0.197861, "worst_return": -0.521587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056962, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.683267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.103124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55287, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.566351, "energy": 22.747453, "activity_lines": [ 462.066667, 473.054545, 477.82381, 476.658065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 472.0, "volume": 115103, "typical_volume": 235704.6, "trend": 466.3, "fair_value": 353.448718, "relative_strength": 3.746775, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.380031, "energy": 23.970861, "activity_lines": [ 464.8, 471.672727, 476.733333, 477.245161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 443.0, "volume": 278350, "typical_volume": 231322.65, "trend": 468.8, "fair_value": 353.717949, "relative_strength": -3.831624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.543305, "energy": 36.705286, "activity_lines": [ 457.666667, 465.381818, 473.080952, 475.741935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 481.0, "volume": 226312, "typical_volume": 219209.0, "trend": 472.366667, "fair_value": 354.230769, "relative_strength": 3.845912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.992556, "energy": 11.85828, "activity_lines": [ 464.933333, 466.472727, 473.557143, 476.529032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }