{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8a88449-f4a6-45b1-a51b-6c31a13d5948", "symbol": "ICE", "name": "Canlan Ice Sports Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.664, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.579, "architecture_energy": 19.887, "architecture_maturity": 34.949, "architecture_confidence": 78.271, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.66, "rotation_up": 27.21, "upward_expansion": 57.84, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.01, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.360667, 4.402686, 4.353003, 4.297814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.3, "trend_reference": 4.254262, "distance_from_trend": 0.010751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.425122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.111981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05394, "excess_performance": -0.066481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07112, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05394, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.474576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.474576, "dry_up": 0.133333, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031894, "annualized_volatility": 0.244339, "from_high_reference": -0.075444, "from_low_reference": 0.286951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.254262, "fair_value_reference": 3.425122, "structural_low": 3.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.002688, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.014062, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.177143, "worst_return": -0.103448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005376, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016172, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.103666, "worst_return": -0.071795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154652, "worst_return": -0.130769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052797, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.392594, "worst_return": -0.141026, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.240032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094428, "active": false 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4.444564, 4.410946, 4.300435, 4.260554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.44, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3440.0, "trend": 4.2345, "fair_value": 3.41131, "relative_strength": -1.367951, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.772548, "energy": 39.084473, "activity_lines": [ 4.435951, 4.427187, 4.321163, 4.274778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.49, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 3350.0, "trend": 4.246208, "fair_value": 3.419894, "relative_strength": -0.551504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.735984, "energy": 35.931707, "activity_lines": [ 4.446, 4.447645, 4.345129, 4.291261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.3, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3190.0, "trend": 4.25222, "fair_value": 3.422508, "relative_strength": -4.143479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.363708, "energy": 22.920543, "activity_lines": [ 4.398, 4.425065, 4.349141, 4.294732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.3, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3000.0, "trend": 4.254262, "fair_value": 3.425122, "relative_strength": -7.111981, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.579271, "energy": 19.887129, "activity_lines": [ 4.360667, 4.402686, 4.353003, 4.297814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }