{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8ad28b7-3ead-404f-a839-ea64041be7d0", "symbol": "AQUAT", "name": "Aquaticus Real Estate AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.473, "architecture_energy": 10.164, "architecture_maturity": 21.099, "architecture_confidence": 53.883, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.07, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 32.8, "deceleration": 43.6, "rotation_down": 19.75, "downward_expansion": 41.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.906667, 44.586074, 43.674007, 44.512764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.0, "trend_reference": 46.595653, "distance_from_trend": -0.034245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.523109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.964232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186908, "excess_performance": -0.248403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077053, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.488345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240, "relative_activity": 0.061255, "balance": 2.488345, "dry_up": 0.340539, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05673, "annualized_volatility": 0.326823, "from_high_reference": -0.221023, "from_low_reference": 0.17794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.595653, "fair_value_reference": 54.523109, "structural_low": 38.202275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008475, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.030471, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.044248, "worst_return": -0.081967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.067659, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.008472, "worst_return": -0.135757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.074933, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.134552, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.042049, "worst_return": -0.107817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145332, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.258677, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.145332, "worst_return": -0.145332, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.360303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072464, "active": false 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"2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.107817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 54.133343, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 909.25, "trend": 58.336422, "fair_value": 69.475291, "relative_strength": -17.108491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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45.323898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.0, "volume": 1406, "typical_volume": 4800.65, "trend": 48.106183, "fair_value": 54.739497, "relative_strength": -16.456858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.185125, "energy": 13.747031, "activity_lines": [ 44.621942, 43.494975, 43.408293, 45.23248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.0, "volume": 686, "typical_volume": 4372.7, "trend": 47.728721, "fair_value": 54.70516, "relative_strength": -18.635957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.548995, "energy": 21.71117, "activity_lines": [ 45.023497, 43.893331, 43.461803, 45.032081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.400002, "volume": 4345, "typical_volume": 3951.05, "trend": 47.331259, "fair_value": 54.648147, "relative_strength": -20.496403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.417068, "energy": 20.093359, "activity_lines": [ 45.06, 44.135727, 43.484108, 44.817325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.599998, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 3925.0, "trend": 46.989441, "fair_value": 54.578966, "relative_strength": -20.673788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.299208, "energy": 17.036879, "activity_lines": [ 44.946666, 44.354096, 43.547255, 44.641115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.0, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 3918.05, "trend": 46.595653, "fair_value": 54.523109, "relative_strength": -20.964232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.473394, "energy": 10.164469, "activity_lines": [ 44.906667, 44.586074, 43.674007, 44.512764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }