{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8b62002-1353-4080-8e46-3b89e8016fe3", "symbol": "ARE", "name": "Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.06, "architecture_energy": 7.5, "architecture_maturity": 11.631, "architecture_confidence": 38.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.24, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 34.5, "deceleration": 55.95, "rotation_down": 32.2, "downward_expansion": 20.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.376, 50.802459, 49.671713, 49.21513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.74, "trend_reference": 49.737194, "distance_from_trend": 5.6e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 82.276356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.921436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096395, "excess_performance": -0.22202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 5.6e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395452, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077193, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.636712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12991419, "relative_activity": 1.280701, "balance": 1.636712, "dry_up": 0.892335, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086949, "annualized_volatility": 0.441761, "from_high_reference": -0.409919, "from_low_reference": 0.279311 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.737194, "fair_value_reference": 82.276356, "structural_low": 38.880315, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.03147, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.041273, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.084594, "worst_return": -0.133392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.06391, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.112212, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.034426, "worst_return": -0.272784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.260312, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.209694, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.028474, "worst_return": 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"mixed", "direction": 22.641397, "energy": 44.05001, "activity_lines": [ 52.489683, 50.740614, 48.72015, 49.078475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.88, "volume": 8373003, "typical_volume": 10911319.65, "trend": 49.494024, "fair_value": 83.709727, "relative_strength": -25.64963, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.472503, "energy": 15.590967, "activity_lines": [ 51.086475, 50.573017, 48.682237, 48.979975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.22, "volume": 6960397, "typical_volume": 10280943.65, "trend": 49.617246, "fair_value": 83.348599, "relative_strength": -19.839458, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.651406, "energy": 10.213993, "activity_lines": [ 50.643986, 50.70276, 48.890755, 49.026812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.94, "volume": 6564491, "typical_volume": 10123256.75, "trend": 49.743118, "fair_value": 82.973906, "relative_strength": -17.158273, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.353652, "energy": 7.625223, "activity_lines": [ 50.590522, 50.880108, 49.182104, 49.112151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.45, "volume": 9691046, "typical_volume": 10073088.3, "trend": 49.850717, "fair_value": 82.634409, "relative_strength": -16.284028, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.75417, "energy": 8.895432, "activity_lines": [ 50.667333, 51.030648, 49.517336, 49.222273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.74, "volume": 12991419, "typical_volume": 10143991.8, "trend": 49.737194, "fair_value": 82.276356, "relative_strength": -20.921436, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.060357, "energy": 7.499687, "activity_lines": [ 50.376, 50.802459, 49.671713, 49.21513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }