{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8b8c852-2522-49cb-8111-ecbe5d18ba4f", "symbol": "DHYD", "name": "iShares II plc $ HY Corp Bd ESG SRI UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.554, "architecture_energy": 28.906, "architecture_maturity": 25.298, "architecture_confidence": 69.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.53, "rotation_up": 40.28, "upward_expansion": 63.88, "deceleration": 82.39, "rotation_down": 24.15, "downward_expansion": 13.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.564367, 4.565036, 4.55528, 4.539882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.5905, "trend_reference": 4.524091, "distance_from_trend": 0.014679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.149068, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.863442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01865, "excess_performance": -0.098013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007336, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01865, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512392, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 405343, "relative_activity": 3.102728, "balance": 1.512392, "dry_up": 1.357801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008832, "annualized_volatility": 0.047852, "from_high_reference": -0.004122, "from_low_reference": 0.056848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.524091, "fair_value_reference": 4.149068, "structural_low": 4.388436, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008822, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005767, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.014487, "worst_return": -0.013462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018755, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042457, "worst_return": -0.017037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045337, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.039254, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.07403, "worst_return": -0.061582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 58.936063, "energy": 52.424446, "activity_lines": [ 4.572167, 4.564399, 4.546232, 4.532211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.544, "volume": 111406, "typical_volume": 313300.8, "trend": 4.519289, "fair_value": 4.136511, "relative_strength": -8.599802, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.11938, "energy": 34.653583, "activity_lines": [ 4.563733, 4.562345, 4.548199, 4.533943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.542, "volume": 78198, "typical_volume": 116915.9, "trend": 4.521164, "fair_value": 4.142625, "relative_strength": -9.107373, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.184869, "energy": 20.9202, "activity_lines": [ 4.555433, 4.559427, 4.549682, 4.535408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5905, "volume": 405343, "typical_volume": 130640.85, "trend": 4.524091, "fair_value": 4.149068, "relative_strength": -8.863442, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.554012, "energy": 28.905792, "activity_lines": [ 4.564367, 4.565036, 4.55528, 4.539882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }