{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d8bf29ca-c0b1-4b11-8bc5-0d196dc69bf6",
    "symbol": "7220",
    "name": "Musashi Seimitsu Industry Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "JPX",
    "country": "JP",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-21",
    "benchmark": "^N225",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 54.06,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -21.604,
    "architecture_energy": 23.431,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.37,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.113,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.05,
        "rotation_up": 22.28,
        "upward_expansion": 20.68,
        "deceleration": 66.23,
        "rotation_down": 50.69,
        "downward_expansion": 39.02
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3367.333333,
        3414.636364,
        4212.642857,
        4170.875252
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 3300.0,
    "trend_reference": 3919.739925,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.158107,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2649.418117,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245557,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.939402,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.399521,
    "excess_performance": 0.237787,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.158107,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078773,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.245557,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.056233,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.209394,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.552814,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.399521,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.62594,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3399000,
      "relative_activity": 0.54039,
      "balance": 1.62594,
      "dry_up": 0.824298,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.334033,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.441831,
      "from_high_reference": -0.651163,
      "from_low_reference": 0.500844
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3919.739925,
      "fair_value_reference": 2649.418117,
      "structural_low": 2328.101727,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.048182,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.035925,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.239884,
        "worst_return": -0.246405,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.052924,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.074006,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.086579,
        "worst_return": -0.084829,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.334038,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.125823,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 2.306101,
        "worst_return": -0.196276,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.035932,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.236823,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.056041,
        "worst_return": -0.127904,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.179153,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.150572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.126278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.028846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.063953,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.183511,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.102921,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.110415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.088957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.114583,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.26107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.266667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023256,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "fair_value": 2614.880689,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.886551,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3345.0,
        "volume": 5973700,
        "typical_volume": 6617380.0,
        "trend": 3873.529696,
        "fair_value": 2625.530054,
        "relative_strength": -20.440738,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.295762,
        "energy": 40.645584,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 3625.0,
        "volume": 2805000,
        "typical_volume": 6332315.0,
        "trend": 3902.466024,
        "fair_value": 2638.561127,
        "relative_strength": -17.142362,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.903639,
        "energy": 32.491998,
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          3350.666667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "close": 3300.0,
        "volume": 3399000,
        "typical_volume": 6289900.0,
        "trend": 3919.739925,
        "fair_value": 2649.418117,
        "relative_strength": -20.939402,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.603643,
        "energy": 23.431156,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}