{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8c367ab-9dfa-4a12-92c1-128d4eb2ec85", "symbol": "COST", "name": "Costco Wholesale Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.478, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.624, "architecture_energy": 38.328, "architecture_maturity": 18.542, "architecture_confidence": 89.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.11, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 4.87, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 50.64, "downward_expansion": 78.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 16330.502439, 16395.723984, 16721.417405, 16926.921133 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16201.0, "trend_reference": 17091.33998, "distance_from_trend": -0.052093, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15984.496821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.897872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060184, "excess_performance": -0.005517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052093, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060184, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12526, "relative_activity": 5.086494, "balance": 0.797178, "dry_up": 2.183262, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041202, "annualized_volatility": 0.185683, "from_high_reference": -0.149554, "from_low_reference": 0.068208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17091.33998, "fair_value_reference": 15984.496821, 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"activity_lines": [ 16372.880752, 16577.561388, 16948.69504, 17066.24835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16330.0, "volume": 454, "typical_volume": 1795.1, "trend": 17065.051862, "fair_value": 15896.900354, "relative_strength": -6.355635, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.97976, "energy": 53.274254, "activity_lines": [ 16342.961078, 16483.452755, 16863.941123, 17020.401017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16521.429688, "volume": 3294, "typical_volume": 1851.7, "trend": 17106.316022, "fair_value": 15942.048579, "relative_strength": -5.557391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.292296, "energy": 41.584415, "activity_lines": [ 16385.763897, 16457.54952, 16804.182938, 16985.328618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16201.0, "volume": 12526, "typical_volume": 2462.6, "trend": 17091.33998, "fair_value": 15984.496821, "relative_strength": -6.897872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.624248, "energy": 38.328068, "activity_lines": [ 16330.502439, 16395.723984, 16721.417405, 16926.921133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }