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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.817, "architecture_energy": 50.769, "architecture_maturity": 47.801, "architecture_confidence": 69.495, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 53.93, "upward_expansion": 80.0, "deceleration": 62.77, "rotation_down": 25.36, "downward_expansion": 6.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 3127.6, 3111.309091, 3087.342857, 3034.083957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3200.0, "trend_reference": 2975.483846, "distance_from_trend": 0.075455, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2544.289831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.948712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110209, "excess_performance": -0.09905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.910603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204963, "relative_activity": 1.712817, "balance": 3.910603, "dry_up": 0.805677, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023918, "annualized_volatility": 0.127303, "from_high_reference": -0.026764, "from_low_reference": 0.220908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2975.483846, "fair_value_reference": 2544.289831, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.662089, "energy": 38.294619, "activity_lines": [ 3097.933333, 3098.945455, 3050.925946, 3002.503025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3070.0, "volume": 32416, "typical_volume": 122710.65, "trend": 2959.065845, "fair_value": 2530.44523, "relative_strength": -12.345585, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.296185, "energy": 38.148302, "activity_lines": [ 3089.733333, 3093.181818, 3059.204762, 3009.997329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3098.0, "volume": 86511, "typical_volume": 114025.85, "trend": 2965.591422, "fair_value": 2536.974127, "relative_strength": -10.644954, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.142477, "energy": 38.615641, "activity_lines": [ 3093.866667, 3092.909091, 3069.161905, 3018.960822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3200.0, "volume": 204963, "typical_volume": 119664.25, "trend": 2975.483846, "fair_value": 2544.289831, "relative_strength": -8.948712, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.817203, "energy": 50.768608, "activity_lines": [ 3127.6, 3111.309091, 3087.342857, 3034.083957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }