{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8cc3bbf-b5c0-4a89-a558-82d7a7d7b8d0", "symbol": "PTCH", "name": "Israel Petrochemical Enterprises Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.38, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.72, "architecture_energy": 11.715, "architecture_maturity": 46.368, "architecture_confidence": 41.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.14, "rotation_up": 18.81, "upward_expansion": 25.03, "deceleration": 73.16, "rotation_down": 37.13, "downward_expansion": 22.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.079133, 4.743855, 39.24541, 36.345196 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.051, "trend_reference": 29.140201, "distance_from_trend": -0.826666, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.388474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.11323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.917966, "excess_performance": 1.889066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.826666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.160782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.701132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.248523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.917966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.528444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 682760, "relative_activity": 1.086175, "balance": 1.528444, "dry_up": 1.347285, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 14.74095, "annualized_volatility": 9.068703, "from_high_reference": -0.989898, "from_low_reference": 2.273493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.140201, "fair_value_reference": 7.388474, "structural_low": 1.727, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022564, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.007377, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.340627, "worst_return": -0.056225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007777, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025155, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175714, "worst_return": -0.147524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05408, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.134748, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.092582, "worst_return": -0.116896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.332849, "activity_lines": [ 3.921, 66.782147, 56.989901, 44.017136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.657, "volume": 744678, "typical_volume": 567870.6, "trend": 28.704601, "fair_value": 7.322667, "relative_strength": -71.324009, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.353565, "energy": 29.796108, "activity_lines": [ 4.199333, 52.830619, 53.433477, 42.471616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.268, "volume": 1131570, "typical_volume": 621467.35, "trend": 28.817967, "fair_value": 7.344199, "relative_strength": -68.327762, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.328442, "energy": 25.265681, "activity_lines": [ 4.6188, 38.970455, 49.921877, 40.959577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.085, "volume": 542655, "typical_volume": 623543.05, "trend": 28.926334, "fair_value": 7.362628, "relative_strength": -70.324132, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.848372, "energy": 19.722934, "activity_lines": [ 4.880467, 25.05551, 46.376458, 39.428418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.121, "volume": 1030579, "typical_volume": 645530.2, "trend": 29.035601, "fair_value": 7.377673, "relative_strength": -69.464357, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.279854, "energy": 16.516411, "activity_lines": [ 5.035733, 11.1426, 42.820801, 37.89259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.051, "volume": 682760, "typical_volume": 628591.0, "trend": 29.140201, "fair_value": 7.388474, "relative_strength": -70.11323, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.719643, "energy": 11.715465, "activity_lines": [ 5.079133, 4.743855, 39.24541, 36.345196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }