{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8d4d4d9-8fa4-4195-a403-5b0801016c03", "symbol": "CAN", "name": "Canaan Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.613, "architecture_energy": 82.113, "architecture_maturity": 76.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.115, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 14.36, "upward_expansion": 19.69, "deceleration": 38.64, "rotation_down": 73.58, "downward_expansion": 95.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.220527, 0.252853, 0.323089, 0.368178 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.2138, "trend_reference": 0.43958, "distance_from_trend": -0.513627, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.144497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.676382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.637566, "excess_performance": -0.825019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.513627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.726764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.637566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.453397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72866295, "relative_activity": 1.456135, "balance": 0.453397, "dry_up": 1.08839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.30834, "annualized_volatility": 0.87253, "from_high_reference": -0.903694, "from_low_reference": 0.41029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.43958, "fair_value_reference": 1.144497, "structural_low": 0.1516, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.03684, "positive_rate": 0.439024, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": -0.036752, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.485915, "worst_return": -0.398816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071615, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 1.103774, "worst_return": -0.671561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.164882, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.278758, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.296211, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.291013, 0.316816, 0.378981, 0.420665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2366, "volume": 37645966, "typical_volume": 47364257.95, "trend": 0.478787, "fair_value": 1.177101, "relative_strength": -69.108374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.883738, "energy": 75.669688, "activity_lines": [ 0.270467, 0.296231, 0.361818, 0.403905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 85084749, "typical_volume": 49098847.45, "trend": 0.458787, "fair_value": 1.160563, "relative_strength": -77.560108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.223787, "energy": 85.448651, "activity_lines": [ 0.233853, 0.268333, 0.33962, 0.383983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2138, "volume": 72866295, "typical_volume": 50040894.75, "trend": 0.43958, "fair_value": 1.144497, "relative_strength": -72.676382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.613327, "energy": 82.112746, "activity_lines": [ 0.220527, 0.252853, 0.323089, 0.368178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }