{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d8d51daa-f2b3-48e1-88c8-23672b550168",
    "symbol": "HY",
    "name": "Hyster-Yale Materials Handling Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 81.772,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 15.138,
    "architecture_energy": 8.853,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.15,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.061,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.35,
        "rotation_up": 28.99,
        "upward_expansion": 25.81,
        "deceleration": 67.28,
        "rotation_down": 36.85,
        "downward_expansion": 27.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        34.476667,
        34.459455,
        35.107875,
        35.048479
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 37.09,
    "trend_reference": 34.952193,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.061164,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 45.39205,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182897,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.35009,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.037437,
    "excess_performance": -0.088188,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061164,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044301,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.182897,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020424,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033501,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03928,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037437,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.574999,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 791956,
      "relative_activity": 1.854744,
      "balance": 1.574999,
      "dry_up": 1.248851,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.097469,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.481231,
      "from_high_reference": -0.101937,
      "from_low_reference": 0.451307
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.952193,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.39205,
      "structural_low": 28.70863,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": -0.003776,
        "positive_rate": 0.470588,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.470588,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018045,
        "regime_survival": 0.588235,
        "best_return": 0.314777,
        "worst_return": -0.225981,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.175845,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.151866,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.552914,
        "worst_return": -0.271194,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.094941,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.156918,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.444733,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.428051,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.306353,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.704366,
        "worst_return": -0.487502,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
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        "return": -0.084172,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.2905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.203587,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 455502.1,
        "trend": 33.519952,
        "fair_value": 45.973989,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -3.983661,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 45.691704,
        "relative_strength": -16.303187,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 405390,
        "typical_volume": 442012.05,
        "trend": 34.465652,
        "fair_value": 45.627395,
        "relative_strength": -14.928879,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.565954,
        "energy": 13.458469,
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          34.388667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 33.0,
        "volume": 385395,
        "typical_volume": 434839.75,
        "trend": 34.564059,
        "fair_value": 45.56543,
        "relative_strength": -12.126994,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.551909,
        "energy": 23.384796,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.563333,
          34.610234,
          35.199543,
          35.073347
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.1,
        "volume": 407760,
        "typical_volume": 416808.45,
        "trend": 34.654693,
        "fair_value": 45.503521,
        "relative_strength": -10.597446,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.230679,
        "energy": 31.577917,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.05,
          34.270062,
          35.035828,
          34.978892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 33.43,
        "volume": 547873,
        "typical_volume": 413248.9,
        "trend": 34.786708,
        "fair_value": 45.431707,
        "relative_strength": -10.064968,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.761753,
        "energy": 35.866165,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.06,
          34.03114,
          34.903459,
          34.899879
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.09,
        "volume": 791956,
        "typical_volume": 426989.4,
        "trend": 34.952193,
        "fair_value": 45.39205,
        "relative_strength": -3.35009,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.138288,
        "energy": 8.853076,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.476667,
          34.459455,
          35.107875,
          35.048479
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}