{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8d9b102-c544-469e-87d9-83df6e68a792", "symbol": "300793", "name": "Cosonic Intelligent Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.989, "architecture_energy": 63.216, "architecture_maturity": 83.8, "architecture_confidence": 95.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 23.43, "upward_expansion": 11.74, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 59.56, "downward_expansion": 85.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.836, 11.049636, 12.06181, 12.871398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 14.091667, "distance_from_trend": -0.198108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.903792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.289478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.577894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317633, "excess_performance": -0.325033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.289478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615306, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30777767, "relative_activity": 1.171971, "balance": 0.615306, "dry_up": 1.449283, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083662, "annualized_volatility": 0.335261, "from_high_reference": -0.453314, "from_low_reference": 0.161357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.091667, "fair_value_reference": 15.903792, "structural_low": 9.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001246, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.02086, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.246032, "worst_return": -0.160643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081731, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.034107, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.198441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033884, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.256795, "worst_return": -0.205402, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 16.055382, "relative_strength": -34.77088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.855368, "energy": 91.419114, "activity_lines": [ 10.968667, 11.729273, 12.761238, 13.574387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.08, "volume": 38176625, "typical_volume": 25859256.9, "trend": 14.423667, "fair_value": 15.999419, "relative_strength": -36.512093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.232932, "energy": 87.914658, "activity_lines": [ 10.572667, 11.295636, 12.432429, 13.281871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.02, "volume": 38972555, "typical_volume": 26054424.3, "trend": 14.258667, "fair_value": 15.94898, "relative_strength": -28.644797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.410158, "energy": 66.457348, "activity_lines": [ 10.648, 11.113636, 12.22181, 13.06228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 30777767, "typical_volume": 26261549.15, "trend": 14.091667, "fair_value": 15.903792, "relative_strength": -29.577894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.988688, "energy": 63.216255, "activity_lines": [ 10.836, 11.049636, 12.06181, 12.871398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }