{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8d9e772-8482-4e1f-a0e8-480d701214c8", "symbol": "2180", "name": "Filling and Packing Materials Manufacturing Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.329, "architecture_energy": 53.718, "architecture_maturity": 18.104, "architecture_confidence": 83.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 64.74, "upward_expansion": 81.03, "deceleration": 56.14, "rotation_down": 15.73, "downward_expansion": 7.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.661333, 32.222545, 30.874952, 30.16529 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.34, "trend_reference": 29.601333, "distance_from_trend": 0.126301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.8175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.502144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126351, "excess_performance": 0.158181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126351, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.229056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 814799, "relative_activity": 2.277969, "balance": 3.229056, "dry_up": 1.25756, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055512, "annualized_volatility": 0.292433, "from_high_reference": -0.103763, "from_low_reference": 0.383402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.601333, "fair_value_reference": 40.8175, "structural_low": 24.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.004814, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011458, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.068069, "worst_return": -0.191149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005137, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.133663, "worst_return": -0.133425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067019, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133663, "worst_return": -0.191197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.11809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064912, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084536, "active": false }, { 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31.799999, "volume": 464296, "typical_volume": 310717.4, "trend": 29.354, "fair_value": 41.100192, "relative_strength": 3.586413, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.756086, "energy": 76.130585, "activity_lines": [ 31.821333, 30.530182, 29.658571, 29.359957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.76, "volume": 120015, "typical_volume": 308753.8, "trend": 29.383333, "fair_value": 41.025577, "relative_strength": 4.416679, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.963945, "energy": 73.686127, "activity_lines": [ 31.934667, 30.927273, 29.932952, 29.515183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 219740, "typical_volume": 297455.75, "trend": 29.4, "fair_value": 40.94609, "relative_strength": 4.903191, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.60432, "energy": 66.294442, "activity_lines": [ 31.989333, 31.326909, 30.212571, 29.690451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.900002, "volume": 644695, "typical_volume": 319047.45, "trend": 29.48, "fair_value": 40.8775, "relative_strength": 9.643835, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.263305, "energy": 52.474275, "activity_lines": [ 32.278667, 31.791636, 30.539238, 29.916258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.34, "volume": 814799, "typical_volume": 357686.6, "trend": 29.601333, "fair_value": 40.8175, "relative_strength": 8.502144, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.328869, "energy": 53.717995, "activity_lines": [ 32.661333, 32.222545, 30.874952, 30.16529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }