{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8e6dd41-85d8-4568-8a57-2e726f72c0d6", "symbol": "PABY11", "name": "Fundo de Investimento Imobili\u00e1rio Panamby", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.432, "architecture_energy": 44.363, "architecture_maturity": 21.32, "architecture_confidence": 71.813, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.77, "rotation_up": 65.91, "upward_expansion": 53.94, "deceleration": 28.95, "rotation_down": 18.93, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.058, 24.208909, 23.154048, 23.992774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.75, "trend_reference": 23.434, "distance_from_trend": 0.141504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.860256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 46.790556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.672921, "excess_performance": 0.729969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.406951, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.467906, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.315903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.672921, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41, "relative_activity": 0.196831, "balance": 0.35576, "dry_up": 0.559289, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146283, "annualized_volatility": 1.458939, "from_high_reference": -0.44617, "from_low_reference": 1.848775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.434, "fair_value_reference": 15.860256, "structural_low": 14.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.040591, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.195913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038115, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.0143, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.776, "worst_return": -0.204667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035849, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.703325, "worst_return": -0.211382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.243593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.117745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.066496, "worst_return": -0.49685, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000741, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156689, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036155, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.364545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.062951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.280517, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.48, "volume": 165, "typical_volume": 998.25, "trend": 15.780333, "fair_value": 12.876026, "relative_strength": 58.917222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.465024, "energy": 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"relative_strength": 15.200643, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.650514, "energy": 6.000985, "activity_lines": [ 20.691333, 20.138909, 23.218619, 22.979742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.889999, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 256.75, "trend": 21.538667, "fair_value": 15.819808, "relative_strength": 17.077694, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.366372, "energy": 8.360413, "activity_lines": [ 20.924666, 20.179636, 22.83, 22.959161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.75, "volume": 162, "typical_volume": 261.95, "trend": 21.997, "fair_value": 15.815064, "relative_strength": 40.363354, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.799337, "energy": 13.541774, "activity_lines": [ 22.326, 21.083091, 22.796429, 23.166344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.91, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 255.15, "trend": 22.560667, "fair_value": 15.834551, "relative_strength": 55.633841, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.345152, "energy": 22.190454, "activity_lines": [ 24.380666, 22.474364, 23.030476, 23.547828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.75, "volume": 199, "typical_volume": 242.45, "trend": 23.042667, "fair_value": 15.845897, "relative_strength": 38.857235, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.035862, "energy": 26.048258, "activity_lines": [ 25.094667, 23.313454, 23.029667, 23.753591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.75, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 208.3, "trend": 23.434, "fair_value": 15.860256, "relative_strength": 46.790556, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.432105, "energy": 44.362952, "activity_lines": [ 26.058, 24.208909, 23.154048, 23.992774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }