{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8ea2847-29bf-4499-a423-9bad935f799d", "symbol": "CSW-B", "name": "Corby Spirit and Wine Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.464, "architecture_energy": 82.309, "architecture_maturity": 85.921, "architecture_confidence": 73.252, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 83.35, "upward_expansion": 94.99, "deceleration": 41.46, "rotation_down": 10.51, "downward_expansion": 16.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.638667, 15.335636, 14.901799, 14.664164 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.15, "trend_reference": 14.368097, "distance_from_trend": 0.124018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.010153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344696, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.838305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197931, "excess_performance": 0.07751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.390244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22400, "relative_activity": 1.235862, "balance": 2.390244, "dry_up": 0.873103, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032525, "annualized_volatility": 0.12434, "from_high_reference": -0.000619, "from_low_reference": 0.287186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.368097, "fair_value_reference": 12.010153, "structural_low": 13.41383, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.004131, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.013307, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.059859, "worst_return": -0.042002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004514, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.038339, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149279, "worst_return": -0.089832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064468, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108461, "worst_return": -0.128329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 11.953594, "relative_strength": 0.863373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.448908, "energy": 79.147078, "activity_lines": [ 15.231333, 14.95605, 14.638394, 14.460606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.53, "volume": 20400, "typical_volume": 18405.0, "trend": 14.290763, "fair_value": 11.979834, "relative_strength": 3.049625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.227524, "energy": 76.906774, "activity_lines": [ 15.352667, 15.099636, 14.744146, 14.544213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.15, "volume": 22400, "typical_volume": 18125.0, "trend": 14.368097, "fair_value": 12.010153, "relative_strength": 3.838305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.464178, "energy": 82.309387, "activity_lines": [ 15.638667, 15.335636, 14.901799, 14.664164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }