{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8f5aacd-a36a-4131-ab79-9e1b7d2bc474", "symbol": "AAC", "name": "AAC Clyde Space AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.833, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.445, "architecture_energy": 30.421, "architecture_maturity": 2.175, "architecture_confidence": 53.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.03, "rotation_up": 15.46, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 56.74, "rotation_down": 59.94, "downward_expansion": 45.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 118.373333, 123.450909, 129.918095, 127.524301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 124.800003, "trend_reference": 125.073333, "distance_from_trend": -0.002185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.353846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.678461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.939679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006452, "excess_performance": -0.055043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002185, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.678461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006452, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.260624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92763, "relative_activity": 0.53805, "balance": 2.260624, "dry_up": 0.513566, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.669036, "from_high_reference": -0.313531, "from_low_reference": 0.762712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.073333, "fair_value_reference": 74.353846, "structural_low": 88.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090346, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3186, "worst_return": -0.029213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.534653, "worst_return": -0.196629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.078652, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.113309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44802, "worst_return": -0.200737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.547532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.663504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.602247, "worst_return": -0.507182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.824253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.468531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.392723, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", 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[ 124.733333, 134.429091, 133.012381, 128.830108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.199997, "volume": 67336, "typical_volume": 186218.2, "trend": 124.426666, "fair_value": 73.261539, "relative_strength": -8.112356, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.428597, "energy": 26.173239, "activity_lines": [ 120.226666, 129.661817, 131.705714, 128.204301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.599998, "volume": 75909, "typical_volume": 185841.2, "trend": 124.513333, "fair_value": 73.776282, "relative_strength": -9.659096, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.557582, "energy": 31.755418, "activity_lines": [ 116.906665, 125.10909, 130.300952, 127.505806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.800003, "volume": 92763, "typical_volume": 172405.9, "trend": 125.073333, "fair_value": 74.353846, "relative_strength": -2.939679, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.444508, "energy": 30.420562, "activity_lines": [ 118.373333, 123.450909, 129.918095, 127.524301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }