{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8f6ed00-66c7-417e-a000-3067e87ad0de", "symbol": "1229", "name": "Lien Hwa Industrial Holdings Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.588, "architecture_energy": 13.862, "architecture_maturity": 12.614, "architecture_confidence": 46.219, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.6, "rotation_up": 45.71, "upward_expansion": 34.72, "deceleration": 32.94, "rotation_down": 19.91, "downward_expansion": 18.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.786667, 40.63929, 39.96719, 40.165427 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.799999, "trend_reference": 40.714633, "distance_from_trend": 0.002097, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.639065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.884864, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032533, "excess_performance": -0.473905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.148359, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9378953, "relative_activity": 0.620077, "balance": 4.148359, "dry_up": 0.87841, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049258, "annualized_volatility": 0.186723, "from_high_reference": -0.150632, "from_low_reference": 0.144412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.714633, "fair_value_reference": 46.639065, "structural_low": 35.651508, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013716, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.003288, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.059211, "worst_return": -0.105027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02746, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165692, "worst_return": -0.088302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011977, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114959, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.074013, "worst_return": -0.243822, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009983, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.48898, "energy": 18.799915, "activity_lines": [ 40.924585, 40.245043, 39.78426, 40.231949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.349998, "volume": 11804600, "typical_volume": 15359738.35, "trend": 40.933064, "fair_value": 46.755518, "relative_strength": -31.310864, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.199724, "energy": 13.810487, "activity_lines": [ 40.809742, 40.399485, 39.819035, 40.184865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.650002, "volume": 9569605, "typical_volume": 15146850.15, "trend": 40.818221, "fair_value": 46.69378, "relative_strength": -31.630714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.233485, "energy": 12.921385, "activity_lines": [ 40.76, 40.534987, 39.884803, 40.166603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 9378953, "typical_volume": 15125463.2, "trend": 40.714633, "fair_value": 46.639065, "relative_strength": -32.884864, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.58842, "energy": 13.861696, "activity_lines": [ 40.786667, 40.63929, 39.96719, 40.165427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }