{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8fa058b-15ba-4487-9951-34aaca38044b", "symbol": "HGRW", "name": "Global X Growth Asset Allocation ETF CAD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.671, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.163, "architecture_energy": 61.706, "architecture_maturity": 94.316, "architecture_confidence": 64.44, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.43, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 77.98, "deceleration": 91.49, "rotation_down": 29.8, "downward_expansion": 15.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.534608, 31.525233, 31.136221, 30.604977 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.99, "trend_reference": 29.996774, "distance_from_trend": 0.066448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.006427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.941601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103009, "excess_performance": -0.017412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 497, "relative_activity": 0.140955, "balance": 0.809109, "dry_up": 0.476326, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013803, "annualized_volatility": 0.122053, "from_high_reference": -0.001872, "from_low_reference": 0.220959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.996774, "fair_value_reference": 25.006427, "structural_low": 27.668297, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017469, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.013916, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.032624, "worst_return": -0.038455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055477, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030482, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.071075, "worst_return": 0.004182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.115832, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028868, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.135967, "worst_return": 0.095698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.559337, "energy": 64.586319, "activity_lines": [ 31.44929, 31.406326, 30.880548, 30.374069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.290001, "volume": 3774, "typical_volume": 3565.7, "trend": 29.899501, "fair_value": 24.958919, "relative_strength": -1.057459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.983057, "energy": 53.1709, "activity_lines": [ 31.373123, 31.407492, 30.982609, 30.470106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.99, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 3525.95, "trend": 29.996774, "fair_value": 25.006427, "relative_strength": -1.941601, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.162824, "energy": 61.70575, "activity_lines": [ 31.534608, 31.525233, 31.136221, 30.604977 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }