{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8fbbcec-7f18-4847-b145-f8a26395def4", "symbol": "XPTD", "name": "Panin ETF IDX30 Dinamis", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.584, "architecture_energy": 12.638, "architecture_maturity": 15.765, "architecture_confidence": 36.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.88, "rotation_up": 25.5, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 41.09, "rotation_down": 27.28, "downward_expansion": 52.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 419.933333, 414.0, 423.342857, 433.430108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 438.0, "trend_reference": 449.366667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 481.782051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.558308, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109756, "excess_performance": 0.0825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095583, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03682, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.390576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209800, "relative_activity": 4.129515, "balance": 3.390576, "dry_up": 2.632123, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205831, "annualized_volatility": 0.800798, "from_high_reference": -0.336364, "from_low_reference": 0.327273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 449.366667, "fair_value_reference": 481.782051, "structural_low": 330.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.009671, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.109589, "worst_return": -0.056604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070776, "worst_return": -0.113786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000254, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.127854, "worst_return": -0.180162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056937, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038532, "worst_return": -0.075342, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020492, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.465909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.814424, "energy": 45.263394, "activity_lines": [ 396.733333, 411.345455, 428.3, 442.507527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 419.0, "volume": 146000, "typical_volume": 31870.0, "trend": 460.966667, "fair_value": 483.435897, "relative_strength": 7.643559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.280026, "energy": 27.299024, "activity_lines": [ 402.2, 410.527273, 426.142857, 439.625806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 421.0, "volume": 148800, "typical_volume": 38905.0, "trend": 458.433333, "fair_value": 482.858974, "relative_strength": 7.468726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.55738, "energy": 22.085652, "activity_lines": [ 407.4, 410.690909, 424.585714, 437.047312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 416.0, "volume": 30300, "typical_volume": 40395.0, "trend": 451.633333, "fair_value": 482.25, "relative_strength": 7.147261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.009586, "energy": 18.736765, "activity_lines": [ 410.6, 410.363636, 422.819048, 434.309677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 438.0, "volume": 209800, "typical_volume": 50805.0, "trend": 449.366667, "fair_value": 481.782051, "relative_strength": 9.558308, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.584404, "energy": 12.637546, "activity_lines": [ 419.933333, 414.0, 423.342857, 433.430108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }