{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8fdba83-4426-42d6-8250-f61b9e8d0836", "symbol": "600830", "name": "Sunny Loan Top Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.494, "architecture_energy": 40.845, "architecture_maturity": 29.917, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 5.39, "deceleration": 49.43, "rotation_down": 50.09, "downward_expansion": 76.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.930667, 7.996727, 8.347104, 8.597709 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.96, "trend_reference": 8.947255, "distance_from_trend": -0.110342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.59172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.470251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176933, "excess_performance": -0.133729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19372701, "relative_activity": 0.633678, "balance": 0.275094, "dry_up": 0.677548, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084732, "annualized_volatility": 0.358727, "from_high_reference": -0.30888, "from_low_reference": 0.047368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.947255, "fair_value_reference": 8.59172, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.050529, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.014929, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.164882, "worst_return": -0.04231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.119728, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.103755, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.267802, "worst_return": -0.115729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122056, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.005799, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.642416, "worst_return": -0.083808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -60.230053, "energy": 43.039097, "activity_lines": [ 8.066667, 8.188555, 8.588291, 8.824121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.66, "volume": 22426945, "typical_volume": 32962922.1, "trend": 9.052677, "fair_value": 8.572045, "relative_strength": -16.449817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.682376, "energy": 44.574845, "activity_lines": [ 7.915333, 8.048727, 8.477905, 8.730804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.03, "volume": 18417619, "typical_volume": 31525887.9, "trend": 9.000301, "fair_value": 8.582234, "relative_strength": -12.146602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.42443, "energy": 42.555782, "activity_lines": [ 7.939333, 8.018364, 8.412144, 8.664825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.96, "volume": 19372701, "typical_volume": 30571846.15, "trend": 8.947255, "fair_value": 8.59172, "relative_strength": -14.470251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.494189, "energy": 40.844603, "activity_lines": [ 7.930667, 7.996727, 8.347104, 8.597709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }