{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8ff1a33-5dec-4e0c-8ec4-ba41b7c01582", "symbol": "SNOW", "name": "ServiceNow, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.591, "architecture_energy": 44.108, "architecture_maturity": 32.652, "architecture_confidence": 47.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.8, "rotation_up": 58.61, "upward_expansion": 55.47, "deceleration": 26.32, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.794668, 93.415637, 90.614857, 90.018989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 107.800003, "trend_reference": 91.113, "distance_from_trend": 0.183146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 139.830064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229064, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.979291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.246531, "excess_performance": 0.072284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.183146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229064, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.267784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.246531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.706505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3531, "relative_activity": 1.492676, "balance": 2.706505, "dry_up": 1.984739, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099608, "annualized_volatility": 0.730389, "from_high_reference": -0.346746, "from_low_reference": 0.545298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.113, "fair_value_reference": 139.830064, "structural_low": 69.760002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031305, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.009928, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.146565, "worst_return": -0.123415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.127712, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.170083, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.294721, "worst_return": -0.183388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113825, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.22924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.397137, "worst_return": -0.21919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049669, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28232, "worst_return": -0.396108, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006291, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.334008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22919, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 99.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.75, "trend": 91.697667, "fair_value": 91.593141, "relative_strength": 16.077829, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.192038, "energy": 17.890737, "activity_lines": [ 88.449333, 88.482182, 87.047523, 90.400322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 91.32, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 1104.3, "trend": 97.277667, "fair_value": 140.092628, "relative_strength": -41.745382, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.162901, "energy": 19.10782, "activity_lines": [ 88.036, 89.456, 87.365714, 89.896602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 94.019997, "volume": 16303, "typical_volume": 1825.2, "trend": 95.530333, "fair_value": 140.0325, "relative_strength": -38.182453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.476625, "energy": 13.431341, "activity_lines": [ 89.634666, 90.605817, 87.933571, 89.68643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.279999, "volume": 4571, "typical_volume": 1920.9, "trend": 94.112333, "fair_value": 139.932757, "relative_strength": -38.388877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.048636, "energy": 11.382957, "activity_lines": [ 90.303999, 90.734545, 88.123714, 89.347698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.580002, "volume": 5653, "typical_volume": 2046.25, "trend": 92.645667, "fair_value": 139.826218, "relative_strength": -41.304161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.534185, "energy": 13.981568, "activity_lines": [ 89.234667, 89.773818, 87.865476, 88.797226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.400002, "volume": 5025, "typical_volume": 2245.85, "trend": 91.617, "fair_value": 139.789295, "relative_strength": -33.405257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.505463, "energy": 7.769494, "activity_lines": [ 91.301334, 90.532, 88.641905, 88.974925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.800003, "volume": 3531, "typical_volume": 2365.55, "trend": 91.113, "fair_value": 139.830064, "relative_strength": -25.979291, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.590891, "energy": 44.108213, "activity_lines": [ 96.794668, 93.415637, 90.614857, 90.018989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }