{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d904410f-9df5-459a-8c3e-418559157a71", "symbol": "600759", "name": "Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.341, "architecture_energy": 56.627, "architecture_maturity": 79.504, "architecture_confidence": 92.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.17, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 46.41, "rotation_down": 47.08, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.416, 2.381273, 2.78181, 3.472301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.33, "trend_reference": 4.139333, "distance_from_trend": -0.437107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.797372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.73011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.572477, "excess_performance": -0.529273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.437107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.598923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.572477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.083597, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 575141351, "relative_activity": 0.535342, "balance": 1.083597, "dry_up": 1.081006, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16177, "annualized_volatility": 0.86165, "from_high_reference": -0.743674, "from_low_reference": 0.188776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.139333, "fair_value_reference": 2.797372, "structural_low": 1.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.027277, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.202899, "worst_return": -0.082677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046798, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018376, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.425121, "worst_return": -0.041152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057778, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005789, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": 0.054299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.56, "volume": 1857009713, "typical_volume": 1458283893.5, "trend": 4.194, "fair_value": 2.804167, "relative_strength": -21.746363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.04412, "energy": 73.267913, "activity_lines": [ 2.372, 2.430727, 3.214714, 3.817978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 1354177020, "typical_volume": 1366525463.55, "trend": 4.188333, "fair_value": 2.802372, "relative_strength": -24.869403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.025652, "energy": 57.913672, "activity_lines": [ 2.434, 2.422, 3.053667, 3.708043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 859165186, "typical_volume": 1203278330.15, "trend": 4.165667, "fair_value": 2.799872, "relative_strength": -28.731737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.37396, "energy": 54.843129, "activity_lines": [ 2.443333, 2.402727, 2.908571, 3.590731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.33, "volume": 575141351, "typical_volume": 1074344637.6, "trend": 4.139333, "fair_value": 2.797372, "relative_strength": -31.73011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.340948, "energy": 56.626819, "activity_lines": [ 2.416, 2.381273, 2.78181, 3.472301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }