{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9044cc7-7b97-4e04-8a5e-2fa470847e42", "symbol": "A1G", "name": "American Airlines Group Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.425, "architecture_energy": 26.596, "architecture_maturity": 69.703, "architecture_confidence": 90.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.26, "rotation_up": 23.69, "upward_expansion": 57.25, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 30.91, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.382933, 13.778655, 13.041743, 12.361959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.722, "trend_reference": 11.8417, "distance_from_trend": 0.158786, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.891333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.542491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069025, "excess_performance": 0.004385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085425, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073583, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40987, "relative_activity": 0.630592, "balance": 1.011684, "dry_up": 0.818344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09522, "annualized_volatility": 0.543786, "from_high_reference": -0.149076, "from_low_reference": 0.55156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.8417, "fair_value_reference": 11.891333, "structural_low": 8.844, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.093872, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.105586, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.061428, "worst_return": -0.317785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.185541, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.158919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171561, "worst_return": -0.353462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.189505, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.185331, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069025, "worst_return": -0.279863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146329, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.334532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.802, "volume": 8524, "typical_volume": 21986.8, "trend": 14.2436, "fair_value": 14.943314, "relative_strength": -5.982306, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.647732, "energy": 23.189381, "activity_lines": [ 14.362667, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.174, "volume": 37664, "typical_volume": 67530.2, "trend": 11.872233, "fair_value": 11.918244, "relative_strength": 11.855858, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.224378, "energy": 77.278193, "activity_lines": [ 14.439867, 13.904327, 12.614705, 12.096766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.718, "volume": 94423, "typical_volume": 67184.85, "trend": 11.8451, "fair_value": 11.902641, "relative_strength": 6.416197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.965777, "energy": 45.969781, "activity_lines": [ 13.818, 13.803091, 12.725033, 12.151331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.228, "volume": 39688, "typical_volume": 65560.8, "trend": 11.840167, "fair_value": 11.894551, "relative_strength": 7.913669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.420463, "energy": 26.575634, "activity_lines": [ 13.437067, 13.758145, 12.869671, 12.240551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.722, "volume": 40987, "typical_volume": 64997.7, "trend": 11.8417, "fair_value": 11.891333, "relative_strength": 8.542491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.424969, "energy": 26.59609, "activity_lines": [ 13.382933, 13.778655, 13.041743, 12.361959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }