{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9072506-23d9-4431-9f73-85b22a4b4ea8", "symbol": "EOG", "name": "Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.554, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.772, "architecture_energy": 41.187, "architecture_maturity": 17.71, "architecture_confidence": 94.335, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.85, "rotation_up": 56.59, "upward_expansion": 80.24, "deceleration": 50.71, "rotation_down": 14.52, "downward_expansion": 6.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.017533, 0.016934, 0.016109, 0.015768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.015702, "distance_from_trend": 0.146375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.011082, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.624295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.751646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107692, "excess_performance": 0.056457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146375, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.624295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.299629, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097516, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107692, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.307584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18349368, "relative_activity": 0.941769, "balance": 2.307584, "dry_up": 1.286352, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184103, "annualized_volatility": 0.572484, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 1.834646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015702, "fair_value_reference": 0.011082, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069134, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.203125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.209302, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.204849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.571429, "worst_return": -0.30303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.424242, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.360899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.357143, "worst_return": -0.27907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.015498, 0.015485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 15163211, "typical_volume": 18320167.3, "trend": 0.015902, "fair_value": 0.011013, "relative_strength": 7.741848, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.156904, "energy": 40.225144, "activity_lines": [ 0.01736, 0.016339, 0.01568, 0.015551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.017, "volume": 33552852, "typical_volume": 19160079.65, "trend": 0.015735, "fair_value": 0.011043, "relative_strength": 5.042074, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.217932, "energy": 40.196516, "activity_lines": [ 0.017333, 0.016564, 0.015854, 0.015622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 18349368, "typical_volume": 19483940.95, "trend": 0.015702, "fair_value": 0.011082, "relative_strength": 9.751646, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.771853, "energy": 41.186657, "activity_lines": [ 0.017533, 0.016934, 0.016109, 0.015768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }