{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d909fef0-186c-40a6-b80e-bf5da3fda583", "symbol": "WMI", "name": "WAM Microcap Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.726, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.838, "architecture_energy": 12.995, "architecture_maturity": 19.978, "architecture_confidence": 70.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.57, "rotation_up": 37.39, "upward_expansion": 32.18, "deceleration": 45.96, "rotation_down": 15.42, "downward_expansion": 40.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.479, 1.463455, 1.459675, 1.471525 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.515, "trend_reference": 1.499757, "distance_from_trend": 0.010164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.367169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10813, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.880964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037977, "excess_performance": -0.101683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010164, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1333240, "relative_activity": 1.367617, "balance": 0.72066, "dry_up": 1.290516, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034543, "annualized_volatility": 0.17955, "from_high_reference": -0.125907, "from_low_reference": 0.105839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.499757, "fair_value_reference": 1.367169, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006968, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.006905, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.06, "worst_return": -0.114943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030777, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.081821, "worst_return": -0.139785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027516, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.006783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132607, "worst_return": -0.145077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064329, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006499, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111632, "worst_return": -0.171524, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.635833, "energy": 25.974014, "activity_lines": [ 1.461667, 1.440818, 1.456366, 1.477173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1031027, "typical_volume": 941567.0, "trend": 1.505733, "fair_value": 1.363761, "relative_strength": -4.957126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.387319, "energy": 24.612864, "activity_lines": [ 1.462333, 1.442818, 1.454788, 1.47335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.465, "volume": 1578083, "typical_volume": 949188.65, "trend": 1.502556, "fair_value": 1.365448, "relative_strength": -6.126534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.020436, "energy": 17.256608, "activity_lines": [ 1.463667, 1.448636, 1.454842, 1.470722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.515, "volume": 1333240, "typical_volume": 974863.4, "trend": 1.499757, "fair_value": 1.367169, "relative_strength": -5.880964, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.838217, "energy": 12.995105, "activity_lines": [ 1.479, 1.463455, 1.459675, 1.471525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }