{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d90f8aed-abfd-489c-88e9-a99f16801e1e", "symbol": "VLRS", "name": "Volaris", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.809, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.849, "architecture_energy": 15.063, "architecture_maturity": 26.78, "architecture_confidence": 64.735, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.58, "rotation_up": 18.05, "upward_expansion": 20.59, "deceleration": 69.57, "rotation_down": 52.09, "downward_expansion": 34.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.912667, 8.190727, 7.997762, 7.951075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.17, "trend_reference": 8.138, "distance_from_trend": 0.003932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.183333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137355, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.399207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218182, "excess_performance": -0.343807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.944862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2794258, "relative_activity": 0.953278, "balance": 0.944862, "dry_up": 0.9657, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105781, "annualized_volatility": 0.604101, "from_high_reference": -0.243519, "from_low_reference": 0.477396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.138, "fair_value_reference": 7.183333, "structural_low": 6.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014278, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.000877, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.290739, "worst_return": -0.186775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.034826, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.152448, "worst_return": -0.135536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.241021, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.27295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344086, "worst_return": -0.39021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.287368, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.241403, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121157, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242553, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043423, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.85, "volume": 991575, "typical_volume": 1537252.9, "trend": 12.233667, "fair_value": 13.689423, "relative_strength": -15.591352, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.046427, "energy": 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"activity_lines": [ 8.459333, 8.323636, 7.947048, 8.019634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.62, "volume": 4611574, "typical_volume": 3270293.25, "trend": 8.224333, "fair_value": 7.222756, "relative_strength": -7.209116, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.03739, "energy": 9.512999, "activity_lines": [ 8.098, 8.252364, 7.943143, 7.977204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.83, "volume": 1635598, "typical_volume": 3011092.9, "trend": 8.180667, "fair_value": 7.199808, "relative_strength": -5.877851, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.076682, "energy": 15.383704, "activity_lines": [ 7.896667, 8.199455, 7.956286, 7.951763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.17, "volume": 2794258, "typical_volume": 2931209.95, "trend": 8.138, "fair_value": 7.183333, "relative_strength": -5.399207, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.848869, "energy": 15.062643, "activity_lines": [ 7.912667, 8.190727, 7.997762, 7.951075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }