{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d90fa264-8e51-41fa-8ab5-219932869f8a", "symbol": "002261", "name": "Talkweb Information System Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.149, "architecture_energy": 64.278, "architecture_maturity": 25.327, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 15.47, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 60.85, "downward_expansion": 85.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.139334, 27.952364, 29.782857, 31.214817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.190001, "trend_reference": 32.625, "distance_from_trend": -0.16659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.089359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.023819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14173, "excess_performance": -0.14913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.429691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 273171676, "relative_activity": 0.743865, "balance": 0.490756, "dry_up": 1.069951, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117181, "annualized_volatility": 0.500708, "from_high_reference": -0.401497, "from_low_reference": 0.108891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.625, "fair_value_reference": 24.089359, "structural_low": 24.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001812, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.607787, "worst_return": -0.218612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023271, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001264, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.290875, "worst_return": -0.255485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004323, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.075122, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.555764, "worst_return": -0.290559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.690375, "energy": 37.950347, "activity_lines": [ 29.912001, 30.019455, 32.072714, 32.810925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.379999, "volume": 616444538, "typical_volume": 482187673.45, "trend": 33.089667, "fair_value": 23.955064, "relative_strength": -18.865464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.77608, "energy": 43.765797, "activity_lines": [ 29.138667, 29.397636, 31.476952, 32.434989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.860001, "volume": 400647925, "typical_volume": 446740237.3, "trend": 32.981, "fair_value": 23.993846, "relative_strength": -20.208875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.542676, "energy": 43.368173, "activity_lines": [ 28.354, 28.835637, 30.875191, 32.033075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.93, "volume": 281420774, "typical_volume": 392527129.35, "trend": 32.822, "fair_value": 24.026346, "relative_strength": -21.24667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.263379, "energy": 50.63569, "activity_lines": [ 27.504667, 28.222182, 30.242905, 31.578172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.190001, "volume": 273171676, "typical_volume": 367233055.15, "trend": 32.625, "fair_value": 24.089359, "relative_strength": -21.023819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.148583, "energy": 64.277766, "activity_lines": [ 27.139334, 27.952364, 29.782857, 31.214817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }