{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d910cf74-e295-4fbe-863f-061f71e2993c", "symbol": "DSRT", "name": "Desert Control AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.154, "architecture_energy": 88.794, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.479, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.34, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 83.81, "downward_expansion": 99.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.385558, 0.596559, 0.851274, 1.024164 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 1.259663, "distance_from_trend": -0.698332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.958762, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.923368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.964694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.786517, "excess_performance": -0.911511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.698332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.923368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.799647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.786517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15525682, "relative_activity": 2.792306, "balance": 0.867025, "dry_up": 1.978655, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.586915, "annualized_volatility": 1.25206, "from_high_reference": -0.92549, "from_low_reference": 0.185647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.259663, "fair_value_reference": 4.958762, "structural_low": 0.3205, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.030515, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.350649, "worst_return": -0.632944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.107704, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.464151, "worst_return": -0.313043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.151633, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.264368, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242321, "worst_return": -0.494387, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.201688, "energy": 76.539479, "activity_lines": [ 0.884992, 1.048214, 1.15665, 1.286054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.43, "volume": 11478033, "typical_volume": 4503836.85, "trend": 1.429713, "fair_value": 5.140784, "relative_strength": -80.027122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.512087, "energy": 87.321611, "activity_lines": [ 0.687033, 0.925134, 1.075905, 1.217772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.41, "volume": 2977281, "typical_volume": 4559851.9, "trend": 1.374046, "fair_value": 5.077296, "relative_strength": -80.554343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.436641, "energy": 92.22067, "activity_lines": [ 0.540808, 0.808309, 0.99878, 1.151984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3285, "volume": 14025604, "typical_volume": 5139635.45, "trend": 1.315662, "fair_value": 5.015194, "relative_strength": -83.560205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.828779, "energy": 91.778762, "activity_lines": [ 0.422083, 0.688484, 0.919464, 1.084529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 15525682, "typical_volume": 5560165.4, "trend": 1.259663, "fair_value": 4.958762, "relative_strength": -79.964694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.153511, "energy": 88.793889, "activity_lines": [ 0.385558, 0.596559, 0.851274, 1.024164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }