{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d91452da-b57c-4d1c-adf9-0af19422a107", "symbol": "SPNT", "name": "Siriuspoint Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.129, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.191, "architecture_energy": 26.438, "architecture_maturity": 37.346, "architecture_confidence": 54.579, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.38, "rotation_up": 44.49, "upward_expansion": 66.01, "deceleration": 61.27, "rotation_down": 24.14, "downward_expansion": 16.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.016667, 24.062909, 23.614143, 23.111118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.03, "trend_reference": 22.346, "distance_from_trend": 0.03061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.344808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.40901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.894674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107744, "excess_performance": -0.017881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.40901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.656358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2626575, "relative_activity": 0.722411, "balance": 1.656358, "dry_up": 0.955684, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070911, "annualized_volatility": 0.259296, "from_high_reference": -0.130287, "from_low_reference": 0.341293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.346, "fair_value_reference": 16.344808, "structural_low": 19.3168, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.018293, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.000765, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.288488, "worst_return": -0.115442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.117772, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.007634, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.288251, "worst_return": -0.098423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.172542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069874, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.413793, "worst_return": 0.041425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 24.148, 23.489091, 23.084381, 22.563419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.9, "volume": 3369280, "typical_volume": 3642566.4, "trend": 22.061333, "fair_value": 16.076859, "relative_strength": 9.471994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.274344, "energy": 72.454354, "activity_lines": [ 24.496667, 23.796909, 23.308333, 22.752581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.35, "volume": 3174573, "typical_volume": 3635354.75, "trend": 22.162667, "fair_value": 16.178526, "relative_strength": 11.90404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.60937, "energy": 73.967138, "activity_lines": [ 24.894, 24.160182, 23.557238, 22.964753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.65, "volume": 4728457, "typical_volume": 3717497.5, "trend": 22.248667, "fair_value": 16.263718, "relative_strength": 3.279463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.458472, "energy": 42.564485, "activity_lines": [ 24.552, 24.170909, 23.623048, 23.06071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.03, "volume": 2626575, "typical_volume": 3635847.65, "trend": 22.346, "fair_value": 16.344808, "relative_strength": -2.894674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.191264, "energy": 26.438272, "activity_lines": [ 24.016667, 24.062909, 23.614143, 23.111118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }