{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d915d870-2d5c-44da-a426-4c62505af362", "symbol": "M", "name": "Macy\u2019s Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.784, "architecture_energy": 44.876, "architecture_maturity": 41.734, "architecture_confidence": 73.549, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.85, "rotation_up": 51.09, "upward_expansion": 76.82, "deceleration": 68.05, "rotation_down": 22.38, "downward_expansion": 5.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.428, 24.197613, 22.956784, 21.955071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.4, "trend_reference": 21.053183, "distance_from_trend": 0.206468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.165008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.571295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.429504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.14029, "excess_performance": 0.014665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.571295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.314142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.134295, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14029, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.034156, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20885744, "relative_activity": 0.75293, "balance": 2.034156, "dry_up": 0.847808, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091263, "annualized_volatility": 0.447773, "from_high_reference": -0.044574, "from_low_reference": 1.192631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.053183, "fair_value_reference": 16.165008, "structural_low": 16.561494, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.020861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003096, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.305378, "worst_return": -0.288596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001566, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.074228, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.43968, "worst_return": -0.280604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430288, "worst_return": -0.278989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 20.836838, "fair_value": 15.964533, "relative_strength": 13.00377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.776085, "energy": 44.26781, "activity_lines": [ 23.651333, 23.472696, 21.925058, 21.250711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.38, "volume": 21714935, "typical_volume": 31091276.8, "trend": 20.881194, "fair_value": 16.022744, "relative_strength": 11.346718, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.426689, "energy": 29.732437, "activity_lines": [ 23.466667, 23.592775, 22.188976, 21.414786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.82, "volume": 27499009, "typical_volume": 30173808.5, "trend": 20.964391, "fair_value": 16.089961, "relative_strength": 15.836976, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.363016, "energy": 35.627087, "activity_lines": [ 23.812667, 23.881731, 22.564073, 21.668903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.4, "volume": 20885744, "typical_volume": 27739291.85, "trend": 21.053183, "fair_value": 16.165008, "relative_strength": 13.429504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.783901, "energy": 44.875973, "activity_lines": [ 24.428, 24.197613, 22.956784, 21.955071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }