{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d91964d6-28db-46e1-9fae-cefc998b98dc", "symbol": "XSBC", "name": "Simas IDX30 ETF", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.75, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.221, "architecture_energy": 20.878, "architecture_maturity": 80.235, "architecture_confidence": 51.803, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.04, "rotation_up": 30.71, "upward_expansion": 18.46, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 22.8, "downward_expansion": 54.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.4, 88.854545, 89.919048, 92.412903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 91.0, "trend_reference": 96.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.056995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 109.057692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.802703, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149533, "excess_performance": 0.042724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165579, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008027, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.175879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48300, "relative_activity": 1.493968, "balance": 4.175879, "dry_up": 1.677235, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061708, "annualized_volatility": 0.274952, "from_high_reference": -0.794118, "from_low_reference": 0.109756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.5, "fair_value_reference": 109.057692, "structural_low": 82.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.006015, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 9.882353, "worst_return": -0.626374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040602, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.032182, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.215054, "worst_return": -0.041237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019335, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01414, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.123711, "worst_return": -0.205607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.164948, "worst_return": -0.018868, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.515464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 2.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.72973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 111.0, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 18375.0, "trend": 105.4, "fair_value": 104.461538, "relative_strength": 3.425638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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100.217204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 85.0, "volume": 21500, "typical_volume": 47490.0, "trend": 102.333333, "fair_value": 110.237179, "relative_strength": -3.758955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.073667, "energy": 88.166096, "activity_lines": [ 89.8, 92.672727, 96.138095, 99.049462 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 86.0, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 46675.0, "trend": 101.633333, "fair_value": 110.108974, "relative_strength": -9.497123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.326646, "energy": 89.708428, "activity_lines": [ 87.933333, 91.109091, 94.847619, 97.995699 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 90.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43385.0, "trend": 101.033333, "fair_value": 109.99359, "relative_strength": -7.961435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.165736, "energy": 81.920058, "activity_lines": [ 88.066667, 90.472727, 94.066667, 97.245161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 86.0, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 41495.0, "trend": 100.333333, "fair_value": 109.852564, "relative_strength": -7.935162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.122199, "energy": 89.924013, "activity_lines": [ 87.266667, 89.254545, 92.966667, 96.275269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 83.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 41205.0, "trend": 99.533333, "fair_value": 109.692308, "relative_strength": -11.557884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.702527, "energy": 90.086097, "activity_lines": [ 85.733333, 87.745455, 91.680952, 95.156989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 87.0, "volume": 116300, "typical_volume": 44645.0, "trend": 98.9, "fair_value": 109.557692, "relative_strength": -9.134614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.560664, "energy": 64.969953, "activity_lines": [ 86.066667, 87.236364, 90.895238, 94.348387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.0, "volume": 96400, "typical_volume": 37405.0, "trend": 98.266667, "fair_value": 109.423077, "relative_strength": -11.665636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.832532, "energy": 44.267626, "activity_lines": [ 86.933333, 87.236364, 90.385714, 93.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.0, "volume": 69200, "typical_volume": 31875.0, "trend": 97.733333, "fair_value": 109.314103, "relative_strength": -7.639389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.419909, "energy": 30.395661, "activity_lines": [ 88.6, 87.909091, 90.27619, 93.305376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.0, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 30190.0, "trend": 97.1, "fair_value": 109.185897, "relative_strength": -2.193928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.950246, "energy": 20.522733, "activity_lines": [ 89.466667, 88.290909, 90.028571, 92.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.0, "volume": 48300, "typical_volume": 32330.0, "trend": 96.5, "fair_value": 109.057692, "relative_strength": 0.802703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.221347, "energy": 20.877543, "activity_lines": [ 90.4, 88.854545, 89.919048, 92.412903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }