{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9197c4e-b923-4fa4-8b19-e13ac315e099", "symbol": "S1RP34", "name": "Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.403, "architecture_energy": 60.103, "architecture_maturity": 30.082, "architecture_confidence": 91.437, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.11, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 17.33, "deceleration": 33.22, "rotation_down": 63.45, "downward_expansion": 83.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.145333, 4.308909, 4.472857, 4.593656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.761, "distance_from_trend": -0.101029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.575962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.79199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.877789, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.113872, "excess_performance": -0.056823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.79199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061405, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.206694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8655, "relative_activity": 1.470551, "balance": 0.206694, "dry_up": 1.389845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109094, "annualized_volatility": 0.577055, "from_high_reference": -0.358321, "from_low_reference": 0.141333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.761, "fair_value_reference": 20.575962, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01946, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.021683, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.305842, "worst_return": -0.59736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057188, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.020611, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.59507, "worst_return": -0.646425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116761, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.227149, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.770576, "worst_return": -0.673205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.805318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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4.681619, 4.763419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 379, "typical_volume": 5396.6, "trend": 4.893, "fair_value": 20.848397, "relative_strength": -27.373516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.573472, "energy": 28.902465, "activity_lines": [ 4.43, 4.432364, 4.60519, 4.699376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.8, "volume": 18712, "typical_volume": 5900.35, "trend": 4.825667, "fair_value": 20.710064, "relative_strength": -31.524644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.279605, "energy": 57.053857, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.322545, 4.514619, 4.62886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 8655, "typical_volume": 5885.55, "trend": 4.761, "fair_value": 20.575962, "relative_strength": -19.877789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.403102, "energy": 60.103498, "activity_lines": [ 4.145333, 4.308909, 4.472857, 4.593656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }