{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d91b9a98-cbe3-47b0-b945-54be887b3814", "symbol": "BDLL4", "name": "Bardella S.A. Ind\u00fastrias Mec\u00e2nicas", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.423, "architecture_energy": 72.731, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.288, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 42.52, "rotation_down": 53.55, "downward_expansion": 86.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.652667, 3.759636, 3.985143, 4.438387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 5.031667, "distance_from_trend": -0.304405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.899551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.556937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.95576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.40678, "excess_performance": -0.349731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.304405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.556937, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.439558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.40678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.504545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2700, "relative_activity": 0.481283, "balance": 2.504545, "dry_up": 0.16934, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108352, "annualized_volatility": 0.72359, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.129032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.031667, "fair_value_reference": 7.899551, "structural_low": 3.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.027998, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.022496, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.322314, "worst_return": -0.218033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075088, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.22924, "worst_return": -0.335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107757, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135555, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167778, "worst_return": -0.384117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204673, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.260556, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.011111, "worst_return": -0.232584, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.527027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.8, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2285.0, "trend": 9.694667, "fair_value": 9.956603, "relative_strength": 1.7679, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.303714, "energy": 82.818238, "activity_lines": [ 3.834, 4.154545, 4.893286, 5.273441 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 3.55, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 5495.0, "trend": 5.592, "fair_value": 8.186987, "relative_strength": -48.638992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.085054, "energy": 81.994458, "activity_lines": [ 3.748, 3.966545, 4.71981, 5.135785 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.09, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5470.0, "trend": 5.521667, "fair_value": 8.146859, "relative_strength": -41.593082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.964718, "energy": 63.147855, "activity_lines": [ 3.852, 3.921273, 4.608952, 5.038882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5445.0, "trend": 5.452333, "fair_value": 8.106731, "relative_strength": -41.100343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.140564, "energy": 55.385367, "activity_lines": [ 3.936, 3.922364, 4.506714, 4.946516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.99, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 5450.0, "trend": 5.379667, "fair_value": 8.065962, "relative_strength": -42.812739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.662605, "energy": 48.26508, "activity_lines": [ 3.965333, 3.917636, 4.405762, 4.852172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.6, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 5480.0, "trend": 5.294, "fair_value": 8.022372, "relative_strength": -46.243378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.308634, "energy": 50.318873, "activity_lines": [ 3.864, 3.855818, 4.276762, 4.737355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 5480.0, "trend": 5.218333, "fair_value": 7.982308, "relative_strength": -40.76516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.46069, "energy": 52.09094, "activity_lines": [ 3.876, 3.867455, 4.189667, 4.647419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.6, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 5480.0, "trend": 5.121667, "fair_value": 7.940321, "relative_strength": -45.336721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.351723, "energy": 62.21118, "activity_lines": [ 3.764667, 3.820909, 4.084571, 4.543011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 5610.0, "trend": 5.031667, "fair_value": 7.899551, "relative_strength": -43.95576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.423128, "energy": 72.730992, "activity_lines": [ 3.652667, 3.759636, 3.985143, 4.438387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }