{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d92179ec-cf77-4010-9925-14b5a8ac0fcb", "symbol": "IEVL", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI Europe Value Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.563, "architecture_energy": 68.342, "architecture_maturity": 51.464, "architecture_confidence": 86.288, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 61.04, "upward_expansion": 85.27, "deceleration": 60.44, "rotation_down": 25.17, "downward_expansion": 11.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.968933, 13.870145, 13.622429, 13.357024 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.168, "trend_reference": 13.0414, "distance_from_trend": 0.086386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.900994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.430967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.361848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116822, "excess_performance": -0.05407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.430967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116822, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.471484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335617, "relative_activity": 1.306013, "balance": 2.471484, "dry_up": 1.223779, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019741, "annualized_volatility": 0.147944, "from_high_reference": -0.003657, "from_low_reference": 0.348563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.0414, "fair_value_reference": 9.900994, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.014377, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.003403, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.07261, "worst_return": -0.084867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.035915, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.009023, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14416, "worst_return": -0.090806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081276, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004564, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.184497, "worst_return": -0.103439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 13.8, "volume": 511755, "typical_volume": 263025.4, "trend": 12.775867, "fair_value": 9.743045, "relative_strength": -0.63246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.386661, "energy": 83.308521, "activity_lines": [ 13.772533, 13.641709, 13.309114, 13.085871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.736, "volume": 314311, "typical_volume": 247787.9, "trend": 12.8408, "fair_value": 9.781096, "relative_strength": 0.235728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.450886, "energy": 74.780067, "activity_lines": [ 13.777867, 13.683418, 13.377467, 13.147815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.762, "volume": 396580, "typical_volume": 252927.75, "trend": 12.906333, "fair_value": 9.818628, "relative_strength": 0.524212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.478015, "energy": 60.660123, "activity_lines": [ 13.7836, 13.7168, 13.445019, 13.207247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.034, "volume": 211430, "typical_volume": 252292.75, "trend": 12.974133, "fair_value": 9.859224, "relative_strength": 1.68089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.659868, "energy": 63.245944, "activity_lines": [ 13.866533, 13.786436, 13.531686, 13.28 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.168, "volume": 335617, "typical_volume": 256978.25, "trend": 13.0414, "fair_value": 9.900994, "relative_strength": -0.361848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.562595, "energy": 68.341674, "activity_lines": [ 13.968933, 13.870145, 13.622429, 13.357024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }