{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d92418a1-f1d2-45c2-841f-70b22194551c", "symbol": "200030", "name": "Samsung Kodex Synth-US Industrial Securities ETF - Equity-Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.397, "architecture_energy": 24.35, "architecture_maturity": 57.847, "architecture_confidence": 76.674, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.71, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 54.58, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 44.09, "downward_expansion": 22.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 45147.666667, 46068.181818, 45797.904762, 45198.709677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44830.0, "trend_reference": 44360.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33932.083333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.460442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049269, "excess_performance": -0.18056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049269, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.70536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35967, "relative_activity": 0.938852, "balance": 1.70536, "dry_up": 0.459376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034515, "annualized_volatility": 0.155637, "from_high_reference": -0.090577, "from_low_reference": 0.249094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44360.166667, "fair_value_reference": 33932.083333, "structural_low": 40975.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016795, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.013853, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.019263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021692, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.002957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146993, "worst_return": -0.065795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089581, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227178, "worst_return": 0.064756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.103097, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.30455, "worst_return": -0.023612, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": 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"close": 45985.0, "volume": 11840, "typical_volume": 39509.35, "trend": 44029.833333, "fair_value": 33681.955128, "relative_strength": -18.711361, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.103829, "energy": 36.946727, "activity_lines": [ 46660.333333, 46811.454545, 45901.833333, 45150.88172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44145.0, "volume": 7537, "typical_volume": 37934.55, "trend": 44203.833333, "fair_value": 33805.384615, "relative_strength": -19.914987, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.684203, "energy": 21.571751, "activity_lines": [ 45640.333333, 46372.727273, 45820.928571, 45158.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44830.0, "volume": 35967, "typical_volume": 38309.55, "trend": 44360.166667, "fair_value": 33932.083333, "relative_strength": -13.460442, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.396593, "energy": 24.350237, "activity_lines": [ 45147.666667, 46068.181818, 45797.904762, 45198.709677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }